Keiko Fujimori holds a commanding lead in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election with over 92% of ONPE actas processed, leaving third place hinging on the razor-thin contest for second between Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino. Traders favor López Aliaga for third at 62% implied probability, betting uncounted votes from Lima—his urban base—and abroad ballots, where he leads strongly, will erase Sánchez's current 20,000–28,000 vote edge amid faster rural tallies. Pre-election polls showed a fragmented field, but logistical delays, voting extensions to April 13, and Aliaga's fraud allegations plus JNE challenges heighten uncertainty before the June 7 runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 61.9%
ロベルト・サンチェス・パロミノ 37.3%
リカルド・ベルモント <1%
ホルヘ・ニエト <1%
$594,433 Vol.
$594,433 Vol.
2026/04/12
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ
62%
ロベルト・サンチェス・パロミノ
37%
リカルド・ベルモント
<1%
ホルヘ・ニエト
<1%
ケイコ・フジモリ
<1%
ホセ・ルナ
<1%
フィオレラ・モリネッリ
<1%
ヨンヒ・レスカノ
<1%
ウォルフガング・グロッツォ
<1%
フェルナンド・オリベラ
<1%
カルロス・アルバレス
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ
<1%
ジョージ・フォルサイト
<1%
エンリケ・バルデラマ
<1%
メシアス・ゲバラ
<1%
セサル・アクーニャ
<1%
ロベルト・チャブラ
<1%
カルロス・エスパ
<1%
マリソル・ペレス・テヨ
<1%
マリオ・ビスカラ
<1%
ウラジミール・セロン
<1%
ホセ・ウィリアムズ
<1%
ラファエル・ベラウンデ・リョサ
<1%
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ 61.9%
ロベルト・サンチェス・パロミノ 37.3%
リカルド・ベルモント <1%
ホルヘ・ニエト <1%
$594,433 Vol.
$594,433 Vol.
2026/04/12
ラファエル・ロペス・アリアガ
$126,547 Vol.
62%
ロベルト・サンチェス・パロミノ
$108,079 Vol.
37%
リカルド・ベルモント
$51,780 Vol.
<1%
ホルヘ・ニエト
$123,784 Vol.
<1%
ケイコ・フジモリ
$10,351 Vol.
<1%
ホセ・ルナ
$8,597 Vol.
<1%
フィオレラ・モリネッリ
$8,988 Vol.
<1%
ヨンヒ・レスカノ
$7,924 Vol.
<1%
ウォルフガング・グロッツォ
$8,577 Vol.
<1%
フェルナンド・オリベラ
$9,843 Vol.
<1%
カルロス・アルバレス
$14,605 Vol.
<1%
アルフォンソ・ロペス・チャウ
$8,739 Vol.
<1%
ジョージ・フォルサイト
$11,778 Vol.
<1%
エンリケ・バルデラマ
$8,981 Vol.
<1%
メシアス・ゲバラ
$8,550 Vol.
<1%
セサル・アクーニャ
$8,178 Vol.
<1%
ロベルト・チャブラ
$9,865 Vol.
<1%
カルロス・エスパ
$11,161 Vol.
<1%
マリソル・ペレス・テヨ
$9,308 Vol.
<1%
マリオ・ビスカラ
$8,215 Vol.
<1%
ウラジミール・セロン
$8,555 Vol.
<1%
ホセ・ウィリアムズ
$9,949 Vol.
<1%
ラファエル・ベラウンデ・リョサ
$12,081 Vol.
<1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Keiko Fujimori holds a commanding lead in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election with over 92% of ONPE actas processed, leaving third place hinging on the razor-thin contest for second between Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino. Traders favor López Aliaga for third at 62% implied probability, betting uncounted votes from Lima—his urban base—and abroad ballots, where he leads strongly, will erase Sánchez's current 20,000–28,000 vote edge amid faster rural tallies. Pre-election polls showed a fragmented field, but logistical delays, voting extensions to April 13, and Aliaga's fraud allegations plus JNE challenges heighten uncertainty before the June 7 runoff.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
音量
$594,433終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Keiko Fujimori holds a commanding lead in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election with over 92% of ONPE actas processed, leaving third place hinging on the razor-thin contest for second between Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino. Traders favor López Aliaga for third at 62% implied probability, betting uncounted votes from Lima—his urban base—and abroad ballots, where he leads strongly, will erase Sánchez's current 20,000–28,000 vote edge amid faster rural tallies. Pre-election polls showed a fragmented field, but logistical delays, voting extensions to April 13, and Aliaga's fraud allegations plus JNE challenges heighten uncertainty before the June 7 runoff.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
音量
$594,433終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Keiko Fujimori holds a commanding lead in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election with over 92% of ONPE actas processed, leaving third place hinging on the razor-thin contest for second between Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino. Traders favor López Aliaga for third at 62% implied probability, betting uncounted votes from Lima—his urban base—and abroad ballots, where he leads strongly, will erase Sánchez's current 20,000–28,000 vote edge amid faster rural tallies. Pre-election polls showed a fragmented field, but logistical delays, voting extensions to April 13, and Aliaga's fraud allegations plus JNE challenges heighten uncertainty before the June 7 runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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