Recent Russian missile and drone barrages targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including strikes on Kyiv reported in early March, underpin the 67.5% implied probability for military action against the Kyiv municipality by March 23. Official Russian Defense Ministry statements confirm ongoing "precision strikes" in response to Ukrainian incursions and Western arms supplies, while Ukrainian air force reports intercepted over 100 projectiles aimed at the capital last week. With no ceasefire signals from Moscow or Kyiv, and historical patterns of near-weekly assaults persisting despite robust defenses, traders price in continued aerial operations as the baseline scenario, though ground advances remain improbable amid winter conditions and frontline stalemates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Mar 23, 2026
NEW
NEW
Mar 23, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
音量
$785終了日
Mar 23, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$785終了日
Mar 23, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Russian missile and drone barrages targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including strikes on Kyiv reported in early March, underpin the 67.5% implied probability for military action against the Kyiv municipality by March 23. Official Russian Defense Ministry statements confirm ongoing "precision strikes" in response to Ukrainian incursions and Western arms supplies, while Ukrainian air force reports intercepted over 100 projectiles aimed at the capital last week. With no ceasefire signals from Moscow or Kyiv, and historical patterns of near-weekly assaults persisting despite robust defenses, traders price in continued aerial operations as the baseline scenario, though ground advances remain improbable amid winter conditions and frontline stalemates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問