A fragile ceasefire brokered on April 8 has paused US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran following the February 28 launch of their joint campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, military assets, and leadership. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have shifted from caution to backing escalated pressure, granting US access to air bases like King Fahd and freezing Iranian assets, amid reports of preparations for potential involvement. Diplomatic efforts continue with recent US-Iran talks in Islamabad and Trump's proposed two-week halt expiring soon, while a US naval blockade enforces restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities for additional countries joining military action by April 30, driven by de-escalation signals but vulnerable to Iranian proxy attacks or failed negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,748,570 Vol.
2026/04/30
UAE
8%
サウジアラビア
6%
クウェート
3%
カタール
3%
トルコ
2%
バーレーン
2%
イギリス
2%
ヨルダン
1%
オマーン
1%
いずれかのEU加盟国
1%
ドイツ
1%
カナダ
<1%
フランス
<1%
$2,748,570 Vol.
UAE
$1,331,546 Vol.
8%
サウジアラビア
$509,921 Vol.
6%
クウェート
$115,149 Vol.
3%
カタール
$27,577 Vol.
3%
トルコ
$68,982 Vol.
2%
バーレーン
$45,099 Vol.
2%
イギリス
$220,823 Vol.
2%
ヨルダン
$19,699 Vol.
1%
オマーン
$30,114 Vol.
1%
いずれかのEU加盟国
$44,723 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$120,111 Vol.
1%
カナダ
$39,857 Vol.
<1%
フランス
$174,968 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile ceasefire brokered on April 8 has paused US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran following the February 28 launch of their joint campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, military assets, and leadership. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have shifted from caution to backing escalated pressure, granting US access to air bases like King Fahd and freezing Iranian assets, amid reports of preparations for potential involvement. Diplomatic efforts continue with recent US-Iran talks in Islamabad and Trump's proposed two-week halt expiring soon, while a US naval blockade enforces restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities for additional countries joining military action by April 30, driven by de-escalation signals but vulnerable to Iranian proxy attacks or failed negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
音量
$2,748,570終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile ceasefire brokered on April 8 has paused US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran following the February 28 launch of their joint campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, military assets, and leadership. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have shifted from caution to backing escalated pressure, granting US access to air bases like King Fahd and freezing Iranian assets, amid reports of preparations for potential involvement. Diplomatic efforts continue with recent US-Iran talks in Islamabad and Trump's proposed two-week halt expiring soon, while a US naval blockade enforces restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities for additional countries joining military action by April 30, driven by de-escalation signals but vulnerable to Iranian proxy attacks or failed negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,748,570終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile ceasefire brokered on April 8 has paused US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran following the February 28 launch of their joint campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, military assets, and leadership. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have shifted from caution to backing escalated pressure, granting US access to air bases like King Fahd and freezing Iranian assets, amid reports of preparations for potential involvement. Diplomatic efforts continue with recent US-Iran talks in Islamabad and Trump's proposed two-week halt expiring soon, while a US naval blockade enforces restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities for additional countries joining military action by April 30, driven by de-escalation signals but vulnerable to Iranian proxy attacks or failed negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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