Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard as the frontrunner at 39.5% to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by fresh reports that President Trump has privately polled advisors on replacing her amid tensions over Iran war policy—following her top aide Joe Kent's resignation in mid-March citing no imminent threat from Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth follows at 18.5%, reflecting scrutiny from his abrupt ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and other senior officers yesterday during the ongoing conflict, signaling internal Pentagon friction. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer also sits at 18.5% amid persistent scandals involving personal allegations against her and her husband, plus departmental inquiries since February. These probabilities capture trader assessments of administration shakeups, with no major exits confirmed since recent high-profile firings like Attorney General Pam Bondi.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Tulsi Gabbard 50%
Pete Hegseth 19%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 19%
Howard Lutnick 14%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
Tulsi Gabbard
40%
Pete Hegseth
19%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
19%
Howard Lutnick
14%
Doug Burgum
11%
Susie Wiles
11%
None before 2027
11%
Chris Wright
11%
Russell T. Vought
10%
Scott Bessent
9%
Mike Waltz
9%
Lee Zeldin
8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
4%
J.D. Vance
3%
Marco Rubio
9%
Brooke Rollins
11%
Scott Turner
11%
Sean Duffy
9%
Linda McMahon
10%
Doug Collins
10%
John Ratcliffe
11%
Jamieson Greer
10%
Kelly Loeffler
11%
Tulsi Gabbard 50%
Pete Hegseth 19%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 19%
Howard Lutnick 14%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
Tulsi Gabbard
$37 Vol.
40%
Pete Hegseth
$52 Vol.
19%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$86 Vol.
19%
Howard Lutnick
$15 Vol.
14%
Doug Burgum
$10 Vol.
11%
Susie Wiles
$11 Vol.
11%
None before 2027
$11 Vol.
11%
Chris Wright
$10 Vol.
11%
Russell T. Vought
$11 Vol.
10%
Scott Bessent
$10 Vol.
9%
Mike Waltz
$10 Vol.
9%
Lee Zeldin
$1,076 Vol.
8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$13 Vol.
4%
J.D. Vance
$11 Vol.
3%
Marco Rubio
$11 Vol.
9%
Brooke Rollins
$10 Vol.
11%
Scott Turner
$10 Vol.
11%
Sean Duffy
$10 Vol.
9%
Linda McMahon
$10 Vol.
10%
Doug Collins
$10 Vol.
10%
John Ratcliffe
$10 Vol.
11%
Jamieson Greer
$10 Vol.
10%
Kelly Loeffler
$10 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard as the frontrunner at 39.5% to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by fresh reports that President Trump has privately polled advisors on replacing her amid tensions over Iran war policy—following her top aide Joe Kent's resignation in mid-March citing no imminent threat from Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth follows at 18.5%, reflecting scrutiny from his abrupt ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and other senior officers yesterday during the ongoing conflict, signaling internal Pentagon friction. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer also sits at 18.5% amid persistent scandals involving personal allegations against her and her husband, plus departmental inquiries since February. These probabilities capture trader assessments of administration shakeups, with no major exits confirmed since recent high-profile firings like Attorney General Pam Bondi.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$1,456終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard as the frontrunner at 39.5% to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by fresh reports that President Trump has privately polled advisors on replacing her amid tensions over Iran war policy—following her top aide Joe Kent's resignation in mid-March citing no imminent threat from Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth follows at 18.5%, reflecting scrutiny from his abrupt ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and other senior officers yesterday during the ongoing conflict, signaling internal Pentagon friction. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer also sits at 18.5% amid persistent scandals involving personal allegations against her and her husband, plus departmental inquiries since February. These probabilities capture trader assessments of administration shakeups, with no major exits confirmed since recent high-profile firings like Attorney General Pam Bondi.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
音量
$1,456終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard as the frontrunner at 39.5% to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by fresh reports that President Trump has privately polled advisors on replacing her amid tensions over Iran war policy—following her top aide Joe Kent's resignation in mid-March citing no imminent threat from Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth follows at 18.5%, reflecting scrutiny from his abrupt ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and other senior officers yesterday during the ongoing conflict, signaling internal Pentagon friction. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer also sits at 18.5% amid persistent scandals involving personal allegations against her and her husband, plus departmental inquiries since February. These probabilities capture trader assessments of administration shakeups, with no major exits confirmed since recent high-profile firings like Attorney General Pam Bondi.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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