Hong Wang's resolution of the Kakeya conjecture has established her as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, driving trader consensus to an 86% implied probability on Polymarket. Jacob Tsimerman follows closely behind at around 74-87% after his unconditional proof of the André–Oort conjecture, with both candidates benefiting from major recent breakthroughs that echo historical patterns of Fields recognition for transformative work in analysis and number theory. The market reflects strong industry narrative around these results amid a competitive field that includes John Pardon and others, though multiple medals will be awarded. With the announcement set for the July 23 opening ceremony at ICM 2026 in Philadelphia—just weeks away—traders are closely watching any final precursor signals or public assessments from the mathematical community before the secret selection locks in.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?
$537,149 Vol.
ホン・ワン
86%
ジェイコブ・ツィマーマン
72%
ジョン・パードン
69%
ユー・デン
63%
Vesselin Dimitrov
49%
サム・ラスキン
25%
ジャック・ソーン
26%
アレクサンダー・エフィモフ
23%
ジュリアン・サハスラブデ
22%
アレクサンドル・ログノフ
28%
ウィル・ソーウィン
14%
$537,149 Vol.
ホン・ワン
86%
ジェイコブ・ツィマーマン
72%
ジョン・パードン
69%
ユー・デン
63%
Vesselin Dimitrov
49%
サム・ラスキン
25%
ジャック・ソーン
26%
アレクサンダー・エフィモフ
23%
ジュリアン・サハスラブデ
22%
アレクサンドル・ログノフ
28%
ウィル・ソーウィン
14%
This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
マーケット開始日: Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.
If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Hong Wang's resolution of the Kakeya conjecture has established her as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, driving trader consensus to an 86% implied probability on Polymarket. Jacob Tsimerman follows closely behind at around 74-87% after his unconditional proof of the André–Oort conjecture, with both candidates benefiting from major recent breakthroughs that echo historical patterns of Fields recognition for transformative work in analysis and number theory. The market reflects strong industry narrative around these results amid a competitive field that includes John Pardon and others, though multiple medals will be awarded. With the announcement set for the July 23 opening ceremony at ICM 2026 in Philadelphia—just weeks away—traders are closely watching any final precursor signals or public assessments from the mathematical community before the secret selection locks in.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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