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icon for 2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?

2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?

icon for 2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?

2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?

$537,143 Vol.

2026/07/30
Polymarket

$537,143 Vol.

Polymarket

ジェイコブ・ツィマーマン

$54,904 Vol.

87%

ホン・ワン

$83,265 Vol.

86%

ジョン・パードン

$85,626 Vol.

66%

ユー・デン

$119,846 Vol.

64%

Vesselin Dimitrov

$0 Vol.

54%

サム・ラスキン

$2,597 Vol.

24%

ジャック・ソーン

$101,287 Vol.

26%

アレクサンダー・エフィモフ

$577 Vol.

24%

ジュリアン・サハスラブデ

$84,584 Vol.

27%

アレクサンドル・ログノフ

$262 Vol.

32%

ウィル・ソーウィン

$4,196 Vol.

18%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang stands as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, driven by her landmark proof of the Kakeya conjecture, which has generated overwhelming acclaim in the mathematics community and pushed her implied probability above 85% on major prediction platforms. Recent coverage and market data highlight how this breakthrough, alongside strong prior work, has outpaced peers like Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne, whose own major results in number theory and arithmetic geometry keep them in contention but trail in consensus momentum. With the International Congress of Mathematicians set for late July in Philadelphia—where up to four medals will be announced at the July 23 opening ceremony—traders are closely watching any late shifts in expert assessments or additional high-profile papers, though the age-40 cutoff and historical voting patterns favor established standouts with transformative contributions over last-minute surges.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
音量
$537,143
終了日
2026/07/30
マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang stands as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, driven by her landmark proof of the Kakeya conjecture, which has generated overwhelming acclaim in the mathematics community and pushed her implied probability above 85% on major prediction platforms. Recent coverage and market data highlight how this breakthrough, alongside strong prior work, has outpaced peers like Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne, whose own major results in number theory and arithmetic geometry keep them in contention but trail in consensus momentum. With the International Congress of Mathematicians set for late July in Philadelphia—where up to four medals will be announced at the July 23 opening ceremony—traders are closely watching any late shifts in expert assessments or additional high-profile papers, though the age-40 cutoff and historical voting patterns favor established standouts with transformative contributions over last-minute surges.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
音量
$537,143
終了日
2026/07/30
マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

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よくある質問

「2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ジェイコブ・ツィマーマン」で87%、次いで「ホン・ワン」が86%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、87¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に87%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?」は$537.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Jan 6, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「ジェイコブ・ツィマーマン」で87%であり、市場がこの結果に87%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ホン・ワン」で86%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年のフィールドメダルを獲得するのは誰ですか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。