Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cycle, with new flagships typically announced each September and shipping shortly after, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. This pattern has held for over a decade across hardware generations, supported by supply chain reports showing continued component production and no official statements indicating a skipped year. Traders view the timeline as highly predictable given Apple's established development cadence for large language model integrations, camera upgrades, and processor advancements. While near-certain consensus prevails, realistic risks include unforeseen supply disruptions, certification delays in key markets, or rare strategic shifts that could push availability into early 2027, though historical precedent makes such outcomes unlikely before the standard fall window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$164,666 Vol.
$164,666 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$164,666 Vol.
$164,666 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cycle, with new flagships typically announced each September and shipping shortly after, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. This pattern has held for over a decade across hardware generations, supported by supply chain reports showing continued component production and no official statements indicating a skipped year. Traders view the timeline as highly predictable given Apple's established development cadence for large language model integrations, camera upgrades, and processor advancements. While near-certain consensus prevails, realistic risks include unforeseen supply disruptions, certification delays in key markets, or rare strategic shifts that could push availability into early 2027, though historical precedent makes such outcomes unlikely before the standard fall window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$164,666終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cycle, with new flagships typically announced each September and shipping shortly after, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. This pattern has held for over a decade across hardware generations, supported by supply chain reports showing continued component production and no official statements indicating a skipped year. Traders view the timeline as highly predictable given Apple's established development cadence for large language model integrations, camera upgrades, and processor advancements. While near-certain consensus prevails, realistic risks include unforeseen supply disruptions, certification delays in key markets, or rare strategic shifts that could push availability into early 2027, though historical precedent makes such outcomes unlikely before the standard fall window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$164,666終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cycle, with new flagships typically announced each September and shipping shortly after, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. This pattern has held for over a decade across hardware generations, supported by supply chain reports showing continued component production and no official statements indicating a skipped year. Traders view the timeline as highly predictable given Apple's established development cadence for large language model integrations, camera upgrades, and processor advancements. While near-certain consensus prevails, realistic risks include unforeseen supply disruptions, certification delays in key markets, or rare strategic shifts that could push availability into early 2027, though historical precedent makes such outcomes unlikely before the standard fall window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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