Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP, was removed from his post in May 2026 after an Ankara appeals court annulled the 2023 party congress on procedural grounds, with police later evicting him from headquarters without formal detention. Subsequent probes into alleged voting irregularities at the congress have led to arrests of other CHP figures, yet Özel himself faces no active warrant or detention order as of mid-June. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no arrest by June 30 because the ruling party has already neutralized his leadership role through judicial channels, reducing the immediate need for further escalation ahead of potential new party elections. Realistic scenarios that could still shift this outcome include abrupt new charges tied to ongoing investigations, statements prompting immediate prosecutorial action, or rapid political developments within the 14-day window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$29,147 Vol.
$29,147 Vol.
2026/06/30
$29,147 Vol.
$29,147 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP, was removed from his post in May 2026 after an Ankara appeals court annulled the 2023 party congress on procedural grounds, with police later evicting him from headquarters without formal detention. Subsequent probes into alleged voting irregularities at the congress have led to arrests of other CHP figures, yet Özel himself faces no active warrant or detention order as of mid-June. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no arrest by June 30 because the ruling party has already neutralized his leadership role through judicial channels, reducing the immediate need for further escalation ahead of potential new party elections. Realistic scenarios that could still shift this outcome include abrupt new charges tied to ongoing investigations, statements prompting immediate prosecutorial action, or rapid political developments within the 14-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ET
音量
$29,147終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP, was removed from his post in May 2026 after an Ankara appeals court annulled the 2023 party congress on procedural grounds, with police later evicting him from headquarters without formal detention. Subsequent probes into alleged voting irregularities at the congress have led to arrests of other CHP figures, yet Özel himself faces no active warrant or detention order as of mid-June. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no arrest by June 30 because the ruling party has already neutralized his leadership role through judicial channels, reducing the immediate need for further escalation ahead of potential new party elections. Realistic scenarios that could still shift this outcome include abrupt new charges tied to ongoing investigations, statements prompting immediate prosecutorial action, or rapid political developments within the 14-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$29,147終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP, was removed from his post in May 2026 after an Ankara appeals court annulled the 2023 party congress on procedural grounds, with police later evicting him from headquarters without formal detention. Subsequent probes into alleged voting irregularities at the congress have led to arrests of other CHP figures, yet Özel himself faces no active warrant or detention order as of mid-June. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no arrest by June 30 because the ruling party has already neutralized his leadership role through judicial channels, reducing the immediate need for further escalation ahead of potential new party elections. Realistic scenarios that could still shift this outcome include abrupt new charges tied to ongoing investigations, statements prompting immediate prosecutorial action, or rapid political developments within the 14-day window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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