Alabama's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Republican leans in the country, reflected in its R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Robert Aderholt secured the Republican nomination comfortably in the May 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee faces structural barriers in this rural, northern Alabama district. Traders price the Republican outcome near 93 percent due to these fundamentals and limited opposition fundraising. Potential shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health development affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$28,474 거래량
$28,474 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
93%
민주당
4%
$28,474 거래량
$28,474 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$13,271 거래량
93%
민주당
$15,202 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Republican leans in the country, reflected in its R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Robert Aderholt secured the Republican nomination comfortably in the May 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee faces structural barriers in this rural, northern Alabama district. Traders price the Republican outcome near 93 percent due to these fundamentals and limited opposition fundraising. Potential shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health development affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$28,474종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Republican leans in the country, reflected in its R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Robert Aderholt secured the Republican nomination comfortably in the May 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee faces structural barriers in this rural, northern Alabama district. Traders price the Republican outcome near 93 percent due to these fundamentals and limited opposition fundraising. Potential shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health development affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$28,474종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Republican leans in the country, reflected in its R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Robert Aderholt secured the Republican nomination comfortably in the May 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee faces structural barriers in this rural, northern Alabama district. Traders price the Republican outcome near 93 percent due to these fundamentals and limited opposition fundraising. Potential shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health development affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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