Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive 77.6% share, consolidating support in Alabama's 4th District ahead of the November general election. The district's strong Republican lean, evidenced by consistent double-digit margins and historical presidential results exceeding 80% for GOP candidates, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5%. Limited Democratic primary activity and the absence of competitive polling or national headwinds have reinforced this positioning. A late scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unanticipated national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though structural factors like voter registration and turnout patterns in this rural-leaning district make such shifts improbable without major intervening events.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$28,474 거래량
$28,474 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
93%
민주당
4%
$28,474 거래량
$28,474 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$13,271 거래량
93%
민주당
$15,202 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive 77.6% share, consolidating support in Alabama's 4th District ahead of the November general election. The district's strong Republican lean, evidenced by consistent double-digit margins and historical presidential results exceeding 80% for GOP candidates, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5%. Limited Democratic primary activity and the absence of competitive polling or national headwinds have reinforced this positioning. A late scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unanticipated national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though structural factors like voter registration and turnout patterns in this rural-leaning district make such shifts improbable without major intervening events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$28,474종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive 77.6% share, consolidating support in Alabama's 4th District ahead of the November general election. The district's strong Republican lean, evidenced by consistent double-digit margins and historical presidential results exceeding 80% for GOP candidates, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5%. Limited Democratic primary activity and the absence of competitive polling or national headwinds have reinforced this positioning. A late scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unanticipated national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though structural factors like voter registration and turnout patterns in this rural-leaning district make such shifts improbable without major intervening events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$28,474종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive 77.6% share, consolidating support in Alabama's 4th District ahead of the November general election. The district's strong Republican lean, evidenced by consistent double-digit margins and historical presidential results exceeding 80% for GOP candidates, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5%. Limited Democratic primary activity and the absence of competitive polling or national headwinds have reinforced this positioning. A late scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unanticipated national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though structural factors like voter registration and turnout patterns in this rural-leaning district make such shifts improbable without major intervening events.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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