Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93% for the AL-04 House election winner, reflecting the district's extreme R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the most Republican nationally—and long-serving incumbent Robert Aderholt's dominant position since 1997, including a 98.8% 2024 victory. Aderholt holds over $1 million cash-on-hand ahead of the May 19 Republican primary against challenger Tommy Barnes, while Democratic contenders Amanda Pusczek and Shane Weaver show minimal fundraising. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Potential shifts could arise from a primary upset leading to a weakened GOP nominee, major scandal, health issues, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,259 거래량
$23,259 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
93%
민주당
4%
$23,259 거래량
$23,259 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$10,596 거래량
93%
민주당
$12,663 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93% for the AL-04 House election winner, reflecting the district's extreme R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the most Republican nationally—and long-serving incumbent Robert Aderholt's dominant position since 1997, including a 98.8% 2024 victory. Aderholt holds over $1 million cash-on-hand ahead of the May 19 Republican primary against challenger Tommy Barnes, while Democratic contenders Amanda Pusczek and Shane Weaver show minimal fundraising. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Potential shifts could arise from a primary upset leading to a weakened GOP nominee, major scandal, health issues, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$23,259종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93% for the AL-04 House election winner, reflecting the district's extreme R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the most Republican nationally—and long-serving incumbent Robert Aderholt's dominant position since 1997, including a 98.8% 2024 victory. Aderholt holds over $1 million cash-on-hand ahead of the May 19 Republican primary against challenger Tommy Barnes, while Democratic contenders Amanda Pusczek and Shane Weaver show minimal fundraising. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Potential shifts could arise from a primary upset leading to a weakened GOP nominee, major scandal, health issues, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,259종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93% for the AL-04 House election winner, reflecting the district's extreme R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the most Republican nationally—and long-serving incumbent Robert Aderholt's dominant position since 1997, including a 98.8% 2024 victory. Aderholt holds over $1 million cash-on-hand ahead of the May 19 Republican primary against challenger Tommy Barnes, while Democratic contenders Amanda Pusczek and Shane Weaver show minimal fundraising. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Potential shifts could arise from a primary upset leading to a weakened GOP nominee, major scandal, health issues, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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