Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) secured the Republican nomination in the March 3 primary with 77% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Chris Jones, who won his primary overwhelmingly at 93%. Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 87.5% implied probability, driven by the district's R+8 partisan voting index, Hill's consistent double-digit victories—including 59% in 2024—and a commanding fundraising edge with $2.45 million cash on hand versus Jones's $40,000 as of mid-February. Recent reports highlight Hill's $558,000 post-primary haul, bolstering his incumbency advantage in this Solid Republican-rated seat ahead of the November 3 contest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
12%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$1,898 거래량
88%
Democratic Party
$4,839 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) secured the Republican nomination in the March 3 primary with 77% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Chris Jones, who won his primary overwhelmingly at 93%. Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 87.5% implied probability, driven by the district's R+8 partisan voting index, Hill's consistent double-digit victories—including 59% in 2024—and a commanding fundraising edge with $2.45 million cash on hand versus Jones's $40,000 as of mid-February. Recent reports highlight Hill's $558,000 post-primary haul, bolstering his incumbency advantage in this Solid Republican-rated seat ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$6,738종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) secured the Republican nomination in the March 3 primary with 77% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Chris Jones, who won his primary overwhelmingly at 93%. Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 87.5% implied probability, driven by the district's R+8 partisan voting index, Hill's consistent double-digit victories—including 59% in 2024—and a commanding fundraising edge with $2.45 million cash on hand versus Jones's $40,000 as of mid-February. Recent reports highlight Hill's $558,000 post-primary haul, bolstering his incumbency advantage in this Solid Republican-rated seat ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,738종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) secured the Republican nomination in the March 3 primary with 77% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Chris Jones, who won his primary overwhelmingly at 93%. Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 87.5% implied probability, driven by the district's R+8 partisan voting index, Hill's consistent double-digit victories—including 59% in 2024—and a commanding fundraising edge with $2.45 million cash on hand versus Jones's $40,000 as of mid-February. Recent reports highlight Hill's $558,000 post-primary haul, bolstering his incumbency advantage in this Solid Republican-rated seat ahead of the November 3 contest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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