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정치·프라이머리

AZ-01 공화당 1차 당선자

Market icon
정치·프라이머리

AZ-01 공화당 1차 당선자

Jay Feely 72%

조셉 챕릭 9.0%

존 트로보 7.1%

토드 그레이엄 5.4%

Polymarket

$347,665 거래량

Jay Feely 72%

조셉 챕릭 9.0%

존 트로보 7.1%

토드 그레이엄 5.4%

Polymarket

$347,665 거래량

Jay Feely

$4,826 거래량

72%

조셉 챕릭

$8,148 거래량

9%

존 트로보

$3,236 거래량

7%

토드 그레이엄

$7,582 거래량

5%

지나 스보보다

$4,187 거래량

3%

제이슨 듀이

$0 거래량

3%

카리 레이크

$6,398 거래량

1%

Mark Brnovich

$16,503 거래량

1%

맷 그레스

$47,835 거래량

1%

케이틀린 퍼링턴

$8,249 거래량

1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,346 거래량

1%

폴 리브스

$222,116 거래량

<1%

브랜든 소워스

$10,713 거래량

<1%

데릭 갈레고

$3,525 거래량

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican primary, driven by his Trump endorsement in January, inclusion in the NRCC's MAGA Majority program on March 17, and dominant first-quarter fundraising exceeding $740,000 announced this week—far outpacing rivals like John Trobough ($463,000 total receipts) and state Rep. Joseph Chaplik ($249,000) as of late 2025. The open seat, vacated by incumbent David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, saw further consolidation after Gina Swoboda's withdrawal, boosting Feely's organizational edge in the July 21 primary. No public polls exist, but his financial and institutional advantages position him strongly in the crowded field, though late endorsements or debates could narrow the gap in this toss-up district rated R+1.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$347,665
종료일
2026.08.04
마켓 개설일
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican primary, driven by his Trump endorsement in January, inclusion in the NRCC's MAGA Majority program on March 17, and dominant first-quarter fundraising exceeding $740,000 announced this week—far outpacing rivals like John Trobough ($463,000 total receipts) and state Rep. Joseph Chaplik ($249,000) as of late 2025. The open seat, vacated by incumbent David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, saw further consolidation after Gina Swoboda's withdrawal, boosting Feely's organizational edge in the July 21 primary. No public polls exist, but his financial and institutional advantages position him strongly in the crowded field, though late endorsements or debates could narrow the gap in this toss-up district rated R+1.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$347,665
종료일
2026.08.04
마켓 개설일
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"AZ-01 공화당 1차 당선자"은 14개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 72%의 "Jay Feely"이며, 이어서 9%의 "조셉 챕릭"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 72¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 72%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "AZ-01 공화당 1차 당선자"은 총 $347.7K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Nov 25, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"AZ-01 공화당 1차 당선자"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 14개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"AZ-01 공화당 1차 당선자"의 현재 유력 후보는 72%의 "Jay Feely"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 72%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 9%의 "조셉 챕릭"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"AZ-01 공화당 1차 당선자"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.