Florida's 14th congressional district remains a Democratic-leaning seat anchored by Tampa Bay demographics and a high partisan voting index favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge from Juan Arauz ahead of the August 18, 2026, primaries, with the general election set for November 3. The filing deadline closed on June 12 without prominent Republican contenders emerging to shift the race dynamics. Traders price Democratic Party shares higher due to the district's historical performance, Castor's long tenure since 2013, and limited opposition, while Republican probabilities reflect broader midterm environment uncertainty and any potential national shifts that could test the seat's margins. Upcoming primaries and candidate fundraising will provide further signals before the general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$21,127 거래량
$21,127 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
56%
Republican Party
50%
$21,127 거래량
$21,127 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$9,267 거래량
56%
Republican Party
$11,859 거래량
50%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 14th congressional district remains a Democratic-leaning seat anchored by Tampa Bay demographics and a high partisan voting index favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge from Juan Arauz ahead of the August 18, 2026, primaries, with the general election set for November 3. The filing deadline closed on June 12 without prominent Republican contenders emerging to shift the race dynamics. Traders price Democratic Party shares higher due to the district's historical performance, Castor's long tenure since 2013, and limited opposition, while Republican probabilities reflect broader midterm environment uncertainty and any potential national shifts that could test the seat's margins. Upcoming primaries and candidate fundraising will provide further signals before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
거래량
$21,127종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 14th congressional district remains a Democratic-leaning seat anchored by Tampa Bay demographics and a high partisan voting index favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge from Juan Arauz ahead of the August 18, 2026, primaries, with the general election set for November 3. The filing deadline closed on June 12 without prominent Republican contenders emerging to shift the race dynamics. Traders price Democratic Party shares higher due to the district's historical performance, Castor's long tenure since 2013, and limited opposition, while Republican probabilities reflect broader midterm environment uncertainty and any potential national shifts that could test the seat's margins. Upcoming primaries and candidate fundraising will provide further signals before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$21,127종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 14th congressional district remains a Democratic-leaning seat anchored by Tampa Bay demographics and a high partisan voting index favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge from Juan Arauz ahead of the August 18, 2026, primaries, with the general election set for November 3. The filing deadline closed on June 12 without prominent Republican contenders emerging to shift the race dynamics. Traders price Democratic Party shares higher due to the district's historical performance, Castor's long tenure since 2013, and limited opposition, while Republican probabilities reflect broader midterm environment uncertainty and any potential national shifts that could test the seat's margins. Upcoming primaries and candidate fundraising will provide further signals before the general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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