Incumbent Rep. Carlos Giménez's strong reelection history in the R+10 Florida 28th Congressional District, where he won by nearly 30 points in 2024 amid Trump carrying the area by 25 points, drives trader consensus favoring the Republican Party nominee at 84.5% implied probability. A early April poll by EDGE/MDW Communications (514 LV voters) showed Giménez leading Democratic challenger Hector Mujica—a former Google executive who switched from a U.S. Senate bid—46%-40% with 14% undecided/other, narrowing amid voter concerns over affordability, immigration raids, and foreign policy like Iran operations. Traders discount the small-sample survey as an outlier against district fundamentals, incumbency advantages, and Giménez's fundraising edge, with Republican primary challenger Herrera Macuran unlikely to prevail ahead of the August 18 primaries.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
15%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$898 거래량
85%
Democratic Party
$5,452 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Carlos Giménez's strong reelection history in the R+10 Florida 28th Congressional District, where he won by nearly 30 points in 2024 amid Trump carrying the area by 25 points, drives trader consensus favoring the Republican Party nominee at 84.5% implied probability. A early April poll by EDGE/MDW Communications (514 LV voters) showed Giménez leading Democratic challenger Hector Mujica—a former Google executive who switched from a U.S. Senate bid—46%-40% with 14% undecided/other, narrowing amid voter concerns over affordability, immigration raids, and foreign policy like Iran operations. Traders discount the small-sample survey as an outlier against district fundamentals, incumbency advantages, and Giménez's fundraising edge, with Republican primary challenger Herrera Macuran unlikely to prevail ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$6,350종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Carlos Giménez's strong reelection history in the R+10 Florida 28th Congressional District, where he won by nearly 30 points in 2024 amid Trump carrying the area by 25 points, drives trader consensus favoring the Republican Party nominee at 84.5% implied probability. A early April poll by EDGE/MDW Communications (514 LV voters) showed Giménez leading Democratic challenger Hector Mujica—a former Google executive who switched from a U.S. Senate bid—46%-40% with 14% undecided/other, narrowing amid voter concerns over affordability, immigration raids, and foreign policy like Iran operations. Traders discount the small-sample survey as an outlier against district fundamentals, incumbency advantages, and Giménez's fundraising edge, with Republican primary challenger Herrera Macuran unlikely to prevail ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,350종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Carlos Giménez's strong reelection history in the R+10 Florida 28th Congressional District, where he won by nearly 30 points in 2024 amid Trump carrying the area by 25 points, drives trader consensus favoring the Republican Party nominee at 84.5% implied probability. A early April poll by EDGE/MDW Communications (514 LV voters) showed Giménez leading Democratic challenger Hector Mujica—a former Google executive who switched from a U.S. Senate bid—46%-40% with 14% undecided/other, narrowing amid voter concerns over affordability, immigration raids, and foreign policy like Iran operations. Traders discount the small-sample survey as an outlier against district fundamentals, incumbency advantages, and Giménez's fundraising edge, with Republican primary challenger Herrera Macuran unlikely to prevail ahead of the August 18 primaries.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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