Georgia's 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold entering the 2026 general election, with incumbent Hank Johnson advancing from the May 19 Democratic primary and facing Republican nominee James Duffie in November. The district's Partisan Voter Index of D+27, driven by consistent strong Democratic performance in DeKalb and Gwinnett counties, underpins the market's 95%+ implied probability for a Democratic winner. Johnson's long tenure since 2007, combined with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable shifts in local voting patterns, reinforces trader consensus. A Democratic hold would align with historical results in this safe seat. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, an unprecedented national Republican wave, or unexpected court-ordered redistricting before the election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$36,771 거래량
$36,771 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
4%
$36,771 거래량
$36,771 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$21,456 거래량
95%
공화당
$15,315 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Georgia's 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold entering the 2026 general election, with incumbent Hank Johnson advancing from the May 19 Democratic primary and facing Republican nominee James Duffie in November. The district's Partisan Voter Index of D+27, driven by consistent strong Democratic performance in DeKalb and Gwinnett counties, underpins the market's 95%+ implied probability for a Democratic winner. Johnson's long tenure since 2007, combined with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable shifts in local voting patterns, reinforces trader consensus. A Democratic hold would align with historical results in this safe seat. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, an unprecedented national Republican wave, or unexpected court-ordered redistricting before the election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$36,771종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Georgia's 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold entering the 2026 general election, with incumbent Hank Johnson advancing from the May 19 Democratic primary and facing Republican nominee James Duffie in November. The district's Partisan Voter Index of D+27, driven by consistent strong Democratic performance in DeKalb and Gwinnett counties, underpins the market's 95%+ implied probability for a Democratic winner. Johnson's long tenure since 2007, combined with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable shifts in local voting patterns, reinforces trader consensus. A Democratic hold would align with historical results in this safe seat. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, an unprecedented national Republican wave, or unexpected court-ordered redistricting before the election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$36,771종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Georgia's 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold entering the 2026 general election, with incumbent Hank Johnson advancing from the May 19 Democratic primary and facing Republican nominee James Duffie in November. The district's Partisan Voter Index of D+27, driven by consistent strong Democratic performance in DeKalb and Gwinnett counties, underpins the market's 95%+ implied probability for a Democratic winner. Johnson's long tenure since 2007, combined with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable shifts in local voting patterns, reinforces trader consensus. A Democratic hold would align with historical results in this safe seat. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, an unprecedented national Republican wave, or unexpected court-ordered redistricting before the election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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