Trader consensus closely splits between four (28.5%) and five (27.3%) countries for Israeli strikes in 2026, driven by verified airstrikes in Iran—sparked by the U.S.-backed campaign starting February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure—alongside ongoing operations in Lebanon and Syria. Recent escalation includes Israel's largest-ever strikes on April 8 against Hezbollah across Lebanon, killing over 300 amid fragile ceasefires, while March 20 airstrikes hit Syria following Druze clashes. The tight race reflects uncertainty over additional targets like Yemen's Houthis or Iraq's militias, as Iran retaliations and faltering Israel-Lebanon talks risk broader multi-front escalation through year-end, though diplomacy could cap the total.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4 28.5%
5 27.2%
6 13.9%
3 11.7%
$6,434,136 거래량
$6,434,136 거래량
2026.12.31
3
12%
4
29%
5
27%
6
14%
7
3%
8
1%
9
1%
10
1%
11
2%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 28.5%
5 27.2%
6 13.9%
3 11.7%
$6,434,136 거래량
$6,434,136 거래량
2026.12.31
3
$1,900,083 거래량
12%
4
$1,144,743 거래량
29%
5
$496,655 거래량
27%
6
$626,859 거래량
14%
7
$602,404 거래량
3%
8
$500,366 거래량
1%
9
$221,736 거래량
1%
10
$375,926 거래량
1%
11
$101,456 거래량
2%
12
$62,139 거래량
<1%
13
$139,205 거래량
<1%
14
$100,735 거래량
<1%
15+
$36,247 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus closely splits between four (28.5%) and five (27.3%) countries for Israeli strikes in 2026, driven by verified airstrikes in Iran—sparked by the U.S.-backed campaign starting February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure—alongside ongoing operations in Lebanon and Syria. Recent escalation includes Israel's largest-ever strikes on April 8 against Hezbollah across Lebanon, killing over 300 amid fragile ceasefires, while March 20 airstrikes hit Syria following Druze clashes. The tight race reflects uncertainty over additional targets like Yemen's Houthis or Iraq's militias, as Iran retaliations and faltering Israel-Lebanon talks risk broader multi-front escalation through year-end, though diplomacy could cap the total.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
거래량
$6,434,136종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus closely splits between four (28.5%) and five (27.3%) countries for Israeli strikes in 2026, driven by verified airstrikes in Iran—sparked by the U.S.-backed campaign starting February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure—alongside ongoing operations in Lebanon and Syria. Recent escalation includes Israel's largest-ever strikes on April 8 against Hezbollah across Lebanon, killing over 300 amid fragile ceasefires, while March 20 airstrikes hit Syria following Druze clashes. The tight race reflects uncertainty over additional targets like Yemen's Houthis or Iraq's militias, as Iran retaliations and faltering Israel-Lebanon talks risk broader multi-front escalation through year-end, though diplomacy could cap the total.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$6,434,136종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus closely splits between four (28.5%) and five (27.3%) countries for Israeli strikes in 2026, driven by verified airstrikes in Iran—sparked by the U.S.-backed campaign starting February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure—alongside ongoing operations in Lebanon and Syria. Recent escalation includes Israel's largest-ever strikes on April 8 against Hezbollah across Lebanon, killing over 300 amid fragile ceasefires, while March 20 airstrikes hit Syria following Druze clashes. The tight race reflects uncertainty over additional targets like Yemen's Houthis or Iraq's militias, as Iran retaliations and faltering Israel-Lebanon talks risk broader multi-front escalation through year-end, though diplomacy could cap the total.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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