Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller secured a commanding 73.5% victory in the March 17 Illinois primary, fending off challengers in the R+20 15th Congressional District, the 32nd most Republican nationally per Cook PVI. Democrat Jennifer Todd emerged from a fragmented primary with just 45.7% amid low turnout (29,000 votes vs. Republicans' 87,000), entering the general election November 3 with a stark fundraising disadvantage—$9,000 cash on hand versus Miller's $833,000 as of late March. Forecasters like Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting trader consensus on Miller's incumbency edge and district fundamentals. Upsets would require a major scandal, national Democratic wave, or Todd's improbable fundraising surge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,676 거래량
$10,676 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
95%
민주당
5%
$10,676 거래량
$10,676 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$7,097 거래량
95%
민주당
$3,579 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller secured a commanding 73.5% victory in the March 17 Illinois primary, fending off challengers in the R+20 15th Congressional District, the 32nd most Republican nationally per Cook PVI. Democrat Jennifer Todd emerged from a fragmented primary with just 45.7% amid low turnout (29,000 votes vs. Republicans' 87,000), entering the general election November 3 with a stark fundraising disadvantage—$9,000 cash on hand versus Miller's $833,000 as of late March. Forecasters like Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting trader consensus on Miller's incumbency edge and district fundamentals. Upsets would require a major scandal, national Democratic wave, or Todd's improbable fundraising surge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$10,676종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller secured a commanding 73.5% victory in the March 17 Illinois primary, fending off challengers in the R+20 15th Congressional District, the 32nd most Republican nationally per Cook PVI. Democrat Jennifer Todd emerged from a fragmented primary with just 45.7% amid low turnout (29,000 votes vs. Republicans' 87,000), entering the general election November 3 with a stark fundraising disadvantage—$9,000 cash on hand versus Miller's $833,000 as of late March. Forecasters like Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting trader consensus on Miller's incumbency edge and district fundamentals. Upsets would require a major scandal, national Democratic wave, or Todd's improbable fundraising surge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$10,676종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Miller secured a commanding 73.5% victory in the March 17 Illinois primary, fending off challengers in the R+20 15th Congressional District, the 32nd most Republican nationally per Cook PVI. Democrat Jennifer Todd emerged from a fragmented primary with just 45.7% amid low turnout (29,000 votes vs. Republicans' 87,000), entering the general election November 3 with a stark fundraising disadvantage—$9,000 cash on hand versus Miller's $833,000 as of late March. Forecasters like Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting trader consensus on Miller's incumbency edge and district fundamentals. Upsets would require a major scandal, national Democratic wave, or Todd's improbable fundraising surge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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