Incumbent Republican Rep. Darin LaHood's unopposed primary victory on March 17 solidified his path in the solidly Republican IL-16, rated R+11 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index and delivering 61% Republican support in the 2024 presidential race, anchoring trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold. Democrat Paul Nolley advanced unopposed after other challengers withdrew, but faces steep barriers including LaHood's $6.4 million cash-on-hand versus Nolley's $65,000 as of late February, underscoring the district's rural north-central Illinois makeup favoring incumbency and conservative lean. No district polling exists yet, with the November 3 general election as the key date; national midterm dynamics could influence turnout in this low-profile race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
12%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$1,838 거래량
88%
Democratic Party
$4,670 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Darin LaHood's unopposed primary victory on March 17 solidified his path in the solidly Republican IL-16, rated R+11 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index and delivering 61% Republican support in the 2024 presidential race, anchoring trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold. Democrat Paul Nolley advanced unopposed after other challengers withdrew, but faces steep barriers including LaHood's $6.4 million cash-on-hand versus Nolley's $65,000 as of late February, underscoring the district's rural north-central Illinois makeup favoring incumbency and conservative lean. No district polling exists yet, with the November 3 general election as the key date; national midterm dynamics could influence turnout in this low-profile race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$6,508종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Darin LaHood's unopposed primary victory on March 17 solidified his path in the solidly Republican IL-16, rated R+11 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index and delivering 61% Republican support in the 2024 presidential race, anchoring trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold. Democrat Paul Nolley advanced unopposed after other challengers withdrew, but faces steep barriers including LaHood's $6.4 million cash-on-hand versus Nolley's $65,000 as of late February, underscoring the district's rural north-central Illinois makeup favoring incumbency and conservative lean. No district polling exists yet, with the November 3 general election as the key date; national midterm dynamics could influence turnout in this low-profile race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,508종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Darin LaHood's unopposed primary victory on March 17 solidified his path in the solidly Republican IL-16, rated R+11 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index and delivering 61% Republican support in the 2024 presidential race, anchoring trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold. Democrat Paul Nolley advanced unopposed after other challengers withdrew, but faces steep barriers including LaHood's $6.4 million cash-on-hand versus Nolley's $65,000 as of late February, underscoring the district's rural north-central Illinois makeup favoring incumbency and conservative lean. No district polling exists yet, with the November 3 general election as the key date; national midterm dynamics could influence turnout in this low-profile race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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