Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie, aided by endorsements from President Trump and substantial outside spending. Democrat Melissa Strange emerged from her party's primary as the general election opponent. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 89.5% implied probability of victory, driven by the district's electoral history, turnout patterns among Republican voters, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals or major scandals could alter positioning ahead of Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$29,586 거래량
$29,586 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
90%
민주당
11%
$29,586 거래량
$29,586 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$23,521 거래량
90%
민주당
$6,065 거래량
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie, aided by endorsements from President Trump and substantial outside spending. Democrat Melissa Strange emerged from her party's primary as the general election opponent. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 89.5% implied probability of victory, driven by the district's electoral history, turnout patterns among Republican voters, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals or major scandals could alter positioning ahead of Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$29,586종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie, aided by endorsements from President Trump and substantial outside spending. Democrat Melissa Strange emerged from her party's primary as the general election opponent. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 89.5% implied probability of victory, driven by the district's electoral history, turnout patterns among Republican voters, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals or major scandals could alter positioning ahead of Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$29,586종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie, aided by endorsements from President Trump and substantial outside spending. Democrat Melissa Strange emerged from her party's primary as the general election opponent. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 89.5% implied probability of victory, driven by the district's electoral history, turnout patterns among Republican voters, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals or major scandals could alter positioning ahead of Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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