Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+18, remains a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report, where incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie won 99.6% in the 2024 general election amid negligible opposition. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican Party reflects this entrenched advantage and a weak Democratic primary field featuring Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange, who hold minimal cash on hand. Recent polls show Massie leading Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein by 5-9 points ahead of the May 19 closed primary, positioning a strong GOP nominee for November 3. Upsets could arise from primary scandals, nominee health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though historical precedents suggest low risk.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$14,808 거래량
$14,808 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
92%
민주당
9%
$14,808 거래량
$14,808 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$13,491 거래량
92%
민주당
$1,316 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+18, remains a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report, where incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie won 99.6% in the 2024 general election amid negligible opposition. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican Party reflects this entrenched advantage and a weak Democratic primary field featuring Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange, who hold minimal cash on hand. Recent polls show Massie leading Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein by 5-9 points ahead of the May 19 closed primary, positioning a strong GOP nominee for November 3. Upsets could arise from primary scandals, nominee health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though historical precedents suggest low risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$14,808종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+18, remains a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report, where incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie won 99.6% in the 2024 general election amid negligible opposition. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican Party reflects this entrenched advantage and a weak Democratic primary field featuring Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange, who hold minimal cash on hand. Recent polls show Massie leading Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein by 5-9 points ahead of the May 19 closed primary, positioning a strong GOP nominee for November 3. Upsets could arise from primary scandals, nominee health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though historical precedents suggest low risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$14,808종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+18, remains a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report, where incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie won 99.6% in the 2024 general election amid negligible opposition. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican Party reflects this entrenched advantage and a weak Democratic primary field featuring Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange, who hold minimal cash on hand. Recent polls show Massie leading Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein by 5-9 points ahead of the May 19 closed primary, positioning a strong GOP nominee for November 3. Upsets could arise from primary scandals, nominee health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though historical precedents suggest low risk.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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