House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's bid for re-election in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+19, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for the Republican Party. The district's strong GOP lean, Scalise's prior primary wins (66.8% in 2024), and his $5.7 million cash-on-hand advantage over underfunded challenger Randall Arrington in the May 16 closed partisan primary solidify this positioning. Democrats face a weak primary between Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, lacking resources to compete in November's general election. While scandals, Scalise's withdrawal, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, no recent developments suggest such risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$31,887 거래량
$31,887 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
93%
민주당
7%
$31,887 거래량
$31,887 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$15,477 거래량
93%
민주당
$16,410 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's bid for re-election in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+19, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for the Republican Party. The district's strong GOP lean, Scalise's prior primary wins (66.8% in 2024), and his $5.7 million cash-on-hand advantage over underfunded challenger Randall Arrington in the May 16 closed partisan primary solidify this positioning. Democrats face a weak primary between Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, lacking resources to compete in November's general election. While scandals, Scalise's withdrawal, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, no recent developments suggest such risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$31,887종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's bid for re-election in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+19, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for the Republican Party. The district's strong GOP lean, Scalise's prior primary wins (66.8% in 2024), and his $5.7 million cash-on-hand advantage over underfunded challenger Randall Arrington in the May 16 closed partisan primary solidify this positioning. Democrats face a weak primary between Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, lacking resources to compete in November's general election. While scandals, Scalise's withdrawal, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, no recent developments suggest such risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$31,887종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's bid for re-election in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+19, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for the Republican Party. The district's strong GOP lean, Scalise's prior primary wins (66.8% in 2024), and his $5.7 million cash-on-hand advantage over underfunded challenger Randall Arrington in the May 16 closed partisan primary solidify this positioning. Democrats face a weak primary between Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, lacking resources to compete in November's general election. While scandals, Scalise's withdrawal, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, no recent developments suggest such risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문