Republican-led redistricting in Louisiana, enacted after the Supreme Court struck down the prior congressional map, stands as the primary driver behind traders assigning the Republican Party an 83 percent implied probability in the LA-06 House race. The new boundaries significantly altered the district's composition, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning seat held by incumbent Cleo Fields to one rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report. This structural change, combined with a Republican primary featuring multiple challengers and limited Democratic options under the revised lines, has solidified market expectations for a GOP victory in the November 2026 election. No major subsequent developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$58,169 거래량
$58,169 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
16%
$58,169 거래량
$58,169 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$31,586 거래량
83%
Democratic Party
$26,583 거래량
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican-led redistricting in Louisiana, enacted after the Supreme Court struck down the prior congressional map, stands as the primary driver behind traders assigning the Republican Party an 83 percent implied probability in the LA-06 House race. The new boundaries significantly altered the district's composition, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning seat held by incumbent Cleo Fields to one rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report. This structural change, combined with a Republican primary featuring multiple challengers and limited Democratic options under the revised lines, has solidified market expectations for a GOP victory in the November 2026 election. No major subsequent developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$58,169종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican-led redistricting in Louisiana, enacted after the Supreme Court struck down the prior congressional map, stands as the primary driver behind traders assigning the Republican Party an 83 percent implied probability in the LA-06 House race. The new boundaries significantly altered the district's composition, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning seat held by incumbent Cleo Fields to one rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report. This structural change, combined with a Republican primary featuring multiple challengers and limited Democratic options under the revised lines, has solidified market expectations for a GOP victory in the November 2026 election. No major subsequent developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$58,169종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican-led redistricting in Louisiana, enacted after the Supreme Court struck down the prior congressional map, stands as the primary driver behind traders assigning the Republican Party an 83 percent implied probability in the LA-06 House race. The new boundaries significantly altered the district's composition, shifting it from a Democratic-leaning seat held by incumbent Cleo Fields to one rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report. This structural change, combined with a Republican primary featuring multiple challengers and limited Democratic options under the revised lines, has solidified market expectations for a GOP victory in the November 2026 election. No major subsequent developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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