Incumbent Senator Ed Markey leads the trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability for the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary on September 1, bolstered by a fresh Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of likely voters showing him ahead 47%-30% over Rep. Seth Moulton, with 20% undecided and Markey's favorables at 84%-9. Markey's incumbency advantage and progressive appeal among liberals persist despite Moulton's generational change pitch amid concerns over the 79-year-old's age, though 68% of voters say it matters little. Moulton at 12.5% reflects his gains from prior polls but stalled momentum below 50%; Rep. Ayanna Pressley's 2.3% lingers post her December decision against running, while longshot Alex Rikleen holds 0.3%. The May state Democratic convention could shape ballot access, with five months until primary voting.