Congresswoman Sarah Elfreth's commanding 59% victory in the 2024 general election for Maryland's 3rd Congressional District, following a competitive Democratic primary, combined with her recent filing for reelection, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House race. The district's solid Democratic partisan voting index (PVI D+14) and historical performance in presidential and midterm contests reinforce this positioning, with no major polling or challenger announcements shifting sentiment in recent weeks. Cook Political Report rates it as safely Democratic amid an incumbent running. Potential disruptions include a credible Republican recruit, Elfreth scandal, legal challenges, or national midterm dynamics favoring the GOP, though structural advantages make an upset unlikely ahead of the June 23 primaries.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$6,046 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$0 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Congresswoman Sarah Elfreth's commanding 59% victory in the 2024 general election for Maryland's 3rd Congressional District, following a competitive Democratic primary, combined with her recent filing for reelection, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House race. The district's solid Democratic partisan voting index (PVI D+14) and historical performance in presidential and midterm contests reinforce this positioning, with no major polling or challenger announcements shifting sentiment in recent weeks. Cook Political Report rates it as safely Democratic amid an incumbent running. Potential disruptions include a credible Republican recruit, Elfreth scandal, legal challenges, or national midterm dynamics favoring the GOP, though structural advantages make an upset unlikely ahead of the June 23 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$6,046종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Congresswoman Sarah Elfreth's commanding 59% victory in the 2024 general election for Maryland's 3rd Congressional District, following a competitive Democratic primary, combined with her recent filing for reelection, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House race. The district's solid Democratic partisan voting index (PVI D+14) and historical performance in presidential and midterm contests reinforce this positioning, with no major polling or challenger announcements shifting sentiment in recent weeks. Cook Political Report rates it as safely Democratic amid an incumbent running. Potential disruptions include a credible Republican recruit, Elfreth scandal, legal challenges, or national midterm dynamics favoring the GOP, though structural advantages make an upset unlikely ahead of the June 23 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,046종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Congresswoman Sarah Elfreth's commanding 59% victory in the 2024 general election for Maryland's 3rd Congressional District, following a competitive Democratic primary, combined with her recent filing for reelection, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House race. The district's solid Democratic partisan voting index (PVI D+14) and historical performance in presidential and midterm contests reinforce this positioning, with no major polling or challenger announcements shifting sentiment in recent weeks. Cook Political Report rates it as safely Democratic amid an incumbent running. Potential disruptions include a credible Republican recruit, Elfreth scandal, legal challenges, or national midterm dynamics favoring the GOP, though structural advantages make an upset unlikely ahead of the June 23 primaries.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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