Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey (D) holds a commanding position in Maryland's 4th Congressional District—a deep-blue seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39—driving trader consensus to 92.5% for a Democratic win on November 3, 2026. Ivey's dominant 88.4% victory in 2024 over George McDermott (R), the sole declared Republican primary contender who returns after prior defeats, underscores the district's reliable Democratic margins in Prince George's County suburbs. With the June 23 Democratic primary approaching, Ivey leads challengers like Shavonne Hedgepeth and Jonathan White via superior fundraising ($426,000 cash on hand), though recent local interviews highlight progressive critiques. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Ivey scandal, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,762 거래량
$17,762 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
6%
$17,762 거래량
$17,762 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$3,553 거래량
93%
공화당
$14,210 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey (D) holds a commanding position in Maryland's 4th Congressional District—a deep-blue seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39—driving trader consensus to 92.5% for a Democratic win on November 3, 2026. Ivey's dominant 88.4% victory in 2024 over George McDermott (R), the sole declared Republican primary contender who returns after prior defeats, underscores the district's reliable Democratic margins in Prince George's County suburbs. With the June 23 Democratic primary approaching, Ivey leads challengers like Shavonne Hedgepeth and Jonathan White via superior fundraising ($426,000 cash on hand), though recent local interviews highlight progressive critiques. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Ivey scandal, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$17,762종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey (D) holds a commanding position in Maryland's 4th Congressional District—a deep-blue seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39—driving trader consensus to 92.5% for a Democratic win on November 3, 2026. Ivey's dominant 88.4% victory in 2024 over George McDermott (R), the sole declared Republican primary contender who returns after prior defeats, underscores the district's reliable Democratic margins in Prince George's County suburbs. With the June 23 Democratic primary approaching, Ivey leads challengers like Shavonne Hedgepeth and Jonathan White via superior fundraising ($426,000 cash on hand), though recent local interviews highlight progressive critiques. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Ivey scandal, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,762종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey (D) holds a commanding position in Maryland's 4th Congressional District—a deep-blue seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39—driving trader consensus to 92.5% for a Democratic win on November 3, 2026. Ivey's dominant 88.4% victory in 2024 over George McDermott (R), the sole declared Republican primary contender who returns after prior defeats, underscores the district's reliable Democratic margins in Prince George's County suburbs. With the June 23 Democratic primary approaching, Ivey leads challengers like Shavonne Hedgepeth and Jonathan White via superior fundraising ($426,000 cash on hand), though recent local interviews highlight progressive critiques. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Ivey scandal, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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