Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross secured his party's nomination without opposition in the June 2, 2026 primary for New Jersey's 1st congressional district, a seat with a D+10 partisan voting index and roughly 44% Democratic voter registration. Republican nominee Damon Galdo, a repeat challenger, also advanced unopposed, but the district's consistent Democratic performance—including Norcross's 2024 reelection margin—has anchored trader pricing near 93.5% for a Democratic victory. Limited fundraising visibility for the GOP side and the absence of major recent scandals or national shifts have reinforced this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant late development, such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Republican turnout in a broader midterm wave, would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$22,251 거래량
$22,251 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$22,251 거래량
$22,251 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$16,124 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$6,127 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross secured his party's nomination without opposition in the June 2, 2026 primary for New Jersey's 1st congressional district, a seat with a D+10 partisan voting index and roughly 44% Democratic voter registration. Republican nominee Damon Galdo, a repeat challenger, also advanced unopposed, but the district's consistent Democratic performance—including Norcross's 2024 reelection margin—has anchored trader pricing near 93.5% for a Democratic victory. Limited fundraising visibility for the GOP side and the absence of major recent scandals or national shifts have reinforced this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant late development, such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Republican turnout in a broader midterm wave, would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$22,251종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross secured his party's nomination without opposition in the June 2, 2026 primary for New Jersey's 1st congressional district, a seat with a D+10 partisan voting index and roughly 44% Democratic voter registration. Republican nominee Damon Galdo, a repeat challenger, also advanced unopposed, but the district's consistent Democratic performance—including Norcross's 2024 reelection margin—has anchored trader pricing near 93.5% for a Democratic victory. Limited fundraising visibility for the GOP side and the absence of major recent scandals or national shifts have reinforced this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant late development, such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Republican turnout in a broader midterm wave, would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$22,251종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross secured his party's nomination without opposition in the June 2, 2026 primary for New Jersey's 1st congressional district, a seat with a D+10 partisan voting index and roughly 44% Democratic voter registration. Republican nominee Damon Galdo, a repeat challenger, also advanced unopposed, but the district's consistent Democratic performance—including Norcross's 2024 reelection margin—has anchored trader pricing near 93.5% for a Democratic victory. Limited fundraising visibility for the GOP side and the absence of major recent scandals or national shifts have reinforced this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant late development, such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Republican turnout in a broader midterm wave, would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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