The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election. Longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement opened a crowded Democratic primary on June 2 that Adam Hamawy won with roughly 28 percent of the vote against more than a dozen rivals, while Republican Gregg Mele secured his party’s nomination without opposition. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the area’s voter registration advantage and limited Republican infrastructure. A national political shift, major candidate-specific controversy, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability paths given the district’s structural profile.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$16,918 거래량
$16,918 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
8%
$16,918 거래량
$16,918 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$11,847 거래량
93%
공화당
$5,071 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election. Longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement opened a crowded Democratic primary on June 2 that Adam Hamawy won with roughly 28 percent of the vote against more than a dozen rivals, while Republican Gregg Mele secured his party’s nomination without opposition. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the area’s voter registration advantage and limited Republican infrastructure. A national political shift, major candidate-specific controversy, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability paths given the district’s structural profile.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$16,918종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election. Longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement opened a crowded Democratic primary on June 2 that Adam Hamawy won with roughly 28 percent of the vote against more than a dozen rivals, while Republican Gregg Mele secured his party’s nomination without opposition. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the area’s voter registration advantage and limited Republican infrastructure. A national political shift, major candidate-specific controversy, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability paths given the district’s structural profile.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$16,918종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election. Longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement opened a crowded Democratic primary on June 2 that Adam Hamawy won with roughly 28 percent of the vote against more than a dozen rivals, while Republican Gregg Mele secured his party’s nomination without opposition. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the area’s voter registration advantage and limited Republican infrastructure. A national political shift, major candidate-specific controversy, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability paths given the district’s structural profile.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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