Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen, who flipped New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote, faces a likely Republican rematch in the November 3, 2026 general election. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Gillen to advance unopposed as of mid-June 2026, while Republican primary contenders including Jeanine Driscoll advance toward the June 23 vote. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and suburban Long Island voter base contribute to the current trader consensus favoring Democrats at 80%, though the seat remains competitive given its narrow recent margin and potential national midterm dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
80%
Republican Party
20%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$144 거래량
80%
Republican Party
$197 거래량
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen, who flipped New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote, faces a likely Republican rematch in the November 3, 2026 general election. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Gillen to advance unopposed as of mid-June 2026, while Republican primary contenders including Jeanine Driscoll advance toward the June 23 vote. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and suburban Long Island voter base contribute to the current trader consensus favoring Democrats at 80%, though the seat remains competitive given its narrow recent margin and potential national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
거래량
$341종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen, who flipped New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote, faces a likely Republican rematch in the November 3, 2026 general election. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Gillen to advance unopposed as of mid-June 2026, while Republican primary contenders including Jeanine Driscoll advance toward the June 23 vote. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and suburban Long Island voter base contribute to the current trader consensus favoring Democrats at 80%, though the seat remains competitive given its narrow recent margin and potential national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$341종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen, who flipped New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote, faces a likely Republican rematch in the November 3, 2026 general election. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Gillen to advance unopposed as of mid-June 2026, while Republican primary contenders including Jeanine Driscoll advance toward the June 23 vote. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and suburban Long Island voter base contribute to the current trader consensus favoring Democrats at 80%, though the seat remains competitive given its narrow recent margin and potential national midterm dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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