Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen, who flipped NY-04 in 2024 by a narrow margin in this Long Island swing district, enters the 2026 cycle with clear advantages as the unopposed Democratic nominee following primary withdrawals. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook and Inside Elections classify the seat as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting its underlying partisan lean and Gillen's early-term record. Republicans remain in a June 23 primary featuring challengers expected to include a potential rematch with former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, but face structural headwinds in a district where Democratic voter registration and suburban turnout trends have supported the party in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 79% for Democrats aligns with these incumbency and rating fundamentals, though the seat's competitiveness leaves room for shifts ahead of the November general.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
80%
Republican Party
42%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$144 거래량
80%
Republican Party
$197 거래량
42%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen, who flipped NY-04 in 2024 by a narrow margin in this Long Island swing district, enters the 2026 cycle with clear advantages as the unopposed Democratic nominee following primary withdrawals. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook and Inside Elections classify the seat as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting its underlying partisan lean and Gillen's early-term record. Republicans remain in a June 23 primary featuring challengers expected to include a potential rematch with former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, but face structural headwinds in a district where Democratic voter registration and suburban turnout trends have supported the party in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 79% for Democrats aligns with these incumbency and rating fundamentals, though the seat's competitiveness leaves room for shifts ahead of the November general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
거래량
$341종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen, who flipped NY-04 in 2024 by a narrow margin in this Long Island swing district, enters the 2026 cycle with clear advantages as the unopposed Democratic nominee following primary withdrawals. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook and Inside Elections classify the seat as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting its underlying partisan lean and Gillen's early-term record. Republicans remain in a June 23 primary featuring challengers expected to include a potential rematch with former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, but face structural headwinds in a district where Democratic voter registration and suburban turnout trends have supported the party in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 79% for Democrats aligns with these incumbency and rating fundamentals, though the seat's competitiveness leaves room for shifts ahead of the November general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$341종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen, who flipped NY-04 in 2024 by a narrow margin in this Long Island swing district, enters the 2026 cycle with clear advantages as the unopposed Democratic nominee following primary withdrawals. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook and Inside Elections classify the seat as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting its underlying partisan lean and Gillen's early-term record. Republicans remain in a June 23 primary featuring challengers expected to include a potential rematch with former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, but face structural headwinds in a district where Democratic voter registration and suburban turnout trends have supported the party in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 79% for Democrats aligns with these incumbency and rating fundamentals, though the seat's competitiveness leaves room for shifts ahead of the November general.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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