New York's 15th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a 2024 general election margin exceeding 55 points for the incumbent. Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position heading into the June 23 Democratic primary and the November general election, backed by strong fundraising, institutional support, and polling leads that have kept Republican challengers marginalized. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the Bronx district's consistent voter patterns and limited GOP infrastructure. Trader consensus at 94% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen primary upset, late scandal, or exceptional national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,538 거래량
$23,538 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
4%
$23,538 거래량
$23,538 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$11,807 거래량
94%
공화당
$11,731 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 15th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a 2024 general election margin exceeding 55 points for the incumbent. Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position heading into the June 23 Democratic primary and the November general election, backed by strong fundraising, institutional support, and polling leads that have kept Republican challengers marginalized. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the Bronx district's consistent voter patterns and limited GOP infrastructure. Trader consensus at 94% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen primary upset, late scandal, or exceptional national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$23,538종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 15th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a 2024 general election margin exceeding 55 points for the incumbent. Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position heading into the June 23 Democratic primary and the November general election, backed by strong fundraising, institutional support, and polling leads that have kept Republican challengers marginalized. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the Bronx district's consistent voter patterns and limited GOP infrastructure. Trader consensus at 94% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen primary upset, late scandal, or exceptional national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,538종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 15th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a 2024 general election margin exceeding 55 points for the incumbent. Ritchie Torres holds a commanding position heading into the June 23 Democratic primary and the November general election, backed by strong fundraising, institutional support, and polling leads that have kept Republican challengers marginalized. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the Bronx district's consistent voter patterns and limited GOP infrastructure. Trader consensus at 94% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen primary upset, late scandal, or exceptional national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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