Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Oregon's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking it among the nation's most reliably Democratic—and unanimous Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Maxine Dexter, who secured 67.7% in 2024, dominates fundraising with over $650,000 raised through late 2025 versus negligible sums for Democratic primary challengers Andrew Castilleja and Jessica Salas, while the Republican primary features only unproven candidate Loran Ayles ahead of the May 19 primaries. A Republican upset would require a major scandal engulfing Dexter, a national GOP wave exceeding historical midterm swings, or an unexpectedly formidable GOP nominee emerging post-primary, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$487 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$0 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Oregon's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking it among the nation's most reliably Democratic—and unanimous Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Maxine Dexter, who secured 67.7% in 2024, dominates fundraising with over $650,000 raised through late 2025 versus negligible sums for Democratic primary challengers Andrew Castilleja and Jessica Salas, while the Republican primary features only unproven candidate Loran Ayles ahead of the May 19 primaries. A Republican upset would require a major scandal engulfing Dexter, a national GOP wave exceeding historical midterm swings, or an unexpectedly formidable GOP nominee emerging post-primary, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$487종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Oregon's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking it among the nation's most reliably Democratic—and unanimous Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Maxine Dexter, who secured 67.7% in 2024, dominates fundraising with over $650,000 raised through late 2025 versus negligible sums for Democratic primary challengers Andrew Castilleja and Jessica Salas, while the Republican primary features only unproven candidate Loran Ayles ahead of the May 19 primaries. A Republican upset would require a major scandal engulfing Dexter, a national GOP wave exceeding historical midterm swings, or an unexpectedly formidable GOP nominee emerging post-primary, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$487종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Oregon's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking it among the nation's most reliably Democratic—and unanimous Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Maxine Dexter, who secured 67.7% in 2024, dominates fundraising with over $650,000 raised through late 2025 versus negligible sums for Democratic primary challengers Andrew Castilleja and Jessica Salas, while the Republican primary features only unproven candidate Loran Ayles ahead of the May 19 primaries. A Republican upset would require a major scandal engulfing Dexter, a national GOP wave exceeding historical midterm swings, or an unexpectedly formidable GOP nominee emerging post-primary, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문