Incumbent Republican William Timmons' strong position in the solidly red SC-04 district drives trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability for a GOP House election win, reflecting the seat's historical margins exceeding 30 points and Cook Political Report's safe Republican rating. Timmons officially filed for re-election on March 25, 2026—his stated final campaign—despite facing GOP primary challengers like Greenville businessman David Atchley and Robert E. Lee, following the March 30 filing deadline. Democrats, including Jessica Ethridge and Courtney McClain, advanced unopposed but confront steep barriers in this R+14 PVI battleground. No recent polls indicate vulnerability, with the June 9 Republican primary as the next key event; a major scandal or primary upset could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages persist.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
89%
Democratic Party
11%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$8,844 거래량
89%
Democratic Party
$0 거래량
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican William Timmons' strong position in the solidly red SC-04 district drives trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability for a GOP House election win, reflecting the seat's historical margins exceeding 30 points and Cook Political Report's safe Republican rating. Timmons officially filed for re-election on March 25, 2026—his stated final campaign—despite facing GOP primary challengers like Greenville businessman David Atchley and Robert E. Lee, following the March 30 filing deadline. Democrats, including Jessica Ethridge and Courtney McClain, advanced unopposed but confront steep barriers in this R+14 PVI battleground. No recent polls indicate vulnerability, with the June 9 Republican primary as the next key event; a major scandal or primary upset could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$8,844종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican William Timmons' strong position in the solidly red SC-04 district drives trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability for a GOP House election win, reflecting the seat's historical margins exceeding 30 points and Cook Political Report's safe Republican rating. Timmons officially filed for re-election on March 25, 2026—his stated final campaign—despite facing GOP primary challengers like Greenville businessman David Atchley and Robert E. Lee, following the March 30 filing deadline. Democrats, including Jessica Ethridge and Courtney McClain, advanced unopposed but confront steep barriers in this R+14 PVI battleground. No recent polls indicate vulnerability, with the June 9 Republican primary as the next key event; a major scandal or primary upset could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$8,844종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican William Timmons' strong position in the solidly red SC-04 district drives trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability for a GOP House election win, reflecting the seat's historical margins exceeding 30 points and Cook Political Report's safe Republican rating. Timmons officially filed for re-election on March 25, 2026—his stated final campaign—despite facing GOP primary challengers like Greenville businessman David Atchley and Robert E. Lee, following the March 30 filing deadline. Democrats, including Jessica Ethridge and Courtney McClain, advanced unopposed but confront steep barriers in this R+14 PVI battleground. No recent polls indicate vulnerability, with the June 9 Republican primary as the next key event; a major scandal or primary upset could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages persist.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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