South Dakota's entrenched Republican dominance, evidenced by supermajority control of the state legislature and consistent 25-30 point GOP House victories, underpins trader consensus pricing the Republican Party at 91.5% to win the at-large congressional district on November 3. Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's retirement for the gubernatorial race has created an open seat, with the GOP primary on June 2 featuring well-funded Attorney General Marty Jackley against James Bialota, positioning a strong nominee against Democrat Nicole Gronli or a contested primary winner. No major developments have emerged since the March 31 filing deadline and April 7 ballot order draw, but a GOP nominee scandal, intraparty fractures, or a national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$2,855 거래량
92%
Democratic Party
$1,722 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's entrenched Republican dominance, evidenced by supermajority control of the state legislature and consistent 25-30 point GOP House victories, underpins trader consensus pricing the Republican Party at 91.5% to win the at-large congressional district on November 3. Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's retirement for the gubernatorial race has created an open seat, with the GOP primary on June 2 featuring well-funded Attorney General Marty Jackley against James Bialota, positioning a strong nominee against Democrat Nicole Gronli or a contested primary winner. No major developments have emerged since the March 31 filing deadline and April 7 ballot order draw, but a GOP nominee scandal, intraparty fractures, or a national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$4,577종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's entrenched Republican dominance, evidenced by supermajority control of the state legislature and consistent 25-30 point GOP House victories, underpins trader consensus pricing the Republican Party at 91.5% to win the at-large congressional district on November 3. Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's retirement for the gubernatorial race has created an open seat, with the GOP primary on June 2 featuring well-funded Attorney General Marty Jackley against James Bialota, positioning a strong nominee against Democrat Nicole Gronli or a contested primary winner. No major developments have emerged since the March 31 filing deadline and April 7 ballot order draw, but a GOP nominee scandal, intraparty fractures, or a national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$4,577종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's entrenched Republican dominance, evidenced by supermajority control of the state legislature and consistent 25-30 point GOP House victories, underpins trader consensus pricing the Republican Party at 91.5% to win the at-large congressional district on November 3. Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's retirement for the gubernatorial race has created an open seat, with the GOP primary on June 2 featuring well-funded Attorney General Marty Jackley against James Bialota, positioning a strong nominee against Democrat Nicole Gronli or a contested primary winner. No major developments have emerged since the March 31 filing deadline and April 7 ballot order draw, but a GOP nominee scandal, intraparty fractures, or a national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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