Incumbent Republican Keith Self's decisive win in the March 3 Texas primary has solidified trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold in TX-03, a district rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report following mid-decade redistricting that added rural eastern counties bolstering its partisan lean. Self faces Democratic nominee Evan Hunt, a retired Air Force veteran, in the November 3 general election, but the race lacks competitive polling or fundraising parity, with Self maintaining a financial edge amid historical GOP margins exceeding 20 points. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues, or national midterm waves, structural advantages like incumbency and suburban Collin County dominance sustain the high implied probability for Republicans.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,122 거래량
$12,122 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
12%
$12,122 거래량
$12,122 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$6,560 거래량
88%
Democratic Party
$5,563 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Keith Self's decisive win in the March 3 Texas primary has solidified trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold in TX-03, a district rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report following mid-decade redistricting that added rural eastern counties bolstering its partisan lean. Self faces Democratic nominee Evan Hunt, a retired Air Force veteran, in the November 3 general election, but the race lacks competitive polling or fundraising parity, with Self maintaining a financial edge amid historical GOP margins exceeding 20 points. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues, or national midterm waves, structural advantages like incumbency and suburban Collin County dominance sustain the high implied probability for Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$12,122종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Keith Self's decisive win in the March 3 Texas primary has solidified trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold in TX-03, a district rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report following mid-decade redistricting that added rural eastern counties bolstering its partisan lean. Self faces Democratic nominee Evan Hunt, a retired Air Force veteran, in the November 3 general election, but the race lacks competitive polling or fundraising parity, with Self maintaining a financial edge amid historical GOP margins exceeding 20 points. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues, or national midterm waves, structural advantages like incumbency and suburban Collin County dominance sustain the high implied probability for Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$12,122종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Keith Self's decisive win in the March 3 Texas primary has solidified trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold in TX-03, a district rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report following mid-decade redistricting that added rural eastern counties bolstering its partisan lean. Self faces Democratic nominee Evan Hunt, a retired Air Force veteran, in the November 3 general election, but the race lacks competitive polling or fundraising parity, with Self maintaining a financial edge amid historical GOP margins exceeding 20 points. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues, or national midterm waves, structural advantages like incumbency and suburban Collin County dominance sustain the high implied probability for Republicans.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문