Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon’s decisive March 3 primary victory solidified his path in the solidly Republican TX-04, a district rated Solid R by Cook Political Report after 2025 redistricting, fueling trader consensus at 85.5% for the Republican Party. The sprawling Northeast Texas seat, anchored by rural strongholds and limited Democratic turnout, has delivered Fallon comfortable margins in prior cycles exceeding 40 points. Democratic nominee Jason Pearce advanced unopposed in his primary but faces steep barriers amid absent competitive polling and fundraising gaps. With the November 3 general election approaching, national midterm dynamics or unforeseen scandals could marginally adjust probabilities, though the partisan lean and incumbency strongly favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
15%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$1,656 거래량
86%
Democratic Party
$1,842 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon’s decisive March 3 primary victory solidified his path in the solidly Republican TX-04, a district rated Solid R by Cook Political Report after 2025 redistricting, fueling trader consensus at 85.5% for the Republican Party. The sprawling Northeast Texas seat, anchored by rural strongholds and limited Democratic turnout, has delivered Fallon comfortable margins in prior cycles exceeding 40 points. Democratic nominee Jason Pearce advanced unopposed in his primary but faces steep barriers amid absent competitive polling and fundraising gaps. With the November 3 general election approaching, national midterm dynamics or unforeseen scandals could marginally adjust probabilities, though the partisan lean and incumbency strongly favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$3,498종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon’s decisive March 3 primary victory solidified his path in the solidly Republican TX-04, a district rated Solid R by Cook Political Report after 2025 redistricting, fueling trader consensus at 85.5% for the Republican Party. The sprawling Northeast Texas seat, anchored by rural strongholds and limited Democratic turnout, has delivered Fallon comfortable margins in prior cycles exceeding 40 points. Democratic nominee Jason Pearce advanced unopposed in his primary but faces steep barriers amid absent competitive polling and fundraising gaps. With the November 3 general election approaching, national midterm dynamics or unforeseen scandals could marginally adjust probabilities, though the partisan lean and incumbency strongly favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$3,498종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon’s decisive March 3 primary victory solidified his path in the solidly Republican TX-04, a district rated Solid R by Cook Political Report after 2025 redistricting, fueling trader consensus at 85.5% for the Republican Party. The sprawling Northeast Texas seat, anchored by rural strongholds and limited Democratic turnout, has delivered Fallon comfortable margins in prior cycles exceeding 40 points. Democratic nominee Jason Pearce advanced unopposed in his primary but faces steep barriers amid absent competitive polling and fundraising gaps. With the November 3 general election approaching, national midterm dynamics or unforeseen scandals could marginally adjust probabilities, though the partisan lean and incumbency strongly favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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