Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 82.5% implied probability to retain Texas's 12th Congressional District in the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+11) and incumbent Craig Goldman's commanding 2024 victory margin of 63.5%-36.5%. Goldman's unopposed win in the March 3 Republican primary underscores party unity and his incumbency advantage in a seat that supported Donald Trump by 24 points in 2024. Democrat Heli Rodriguez Prilliman secured her nomination with 59.8% in a low-turnout primary, but faces steep barriers amid universal Solid/Safe Republican ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. No major shifts have occurred since primaries, with Goldman holding superior cash-on-hand.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
15%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$5,412 거래량
83%
Democratic Party
$1,556 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 82.5% implied probability to retain Texas's 12th Congressional District in the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+11) and incumbent Craig Goldman's commanding 2024 victory margin of 63.5%-36.5%. Goldman's unopposed win in the March 3 Republican primary underscores party unity and his incumbency advantage in a seat that supported Donald Trump by 24 points in 2024. Democrat Heli Rodriguez Prilliman secured her nomination with 59.8% in a low-turnout primary, but faces steep barriers amid universal Solid/Safe Republican ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. No major shifts have occurred since primaries, with Goldman holding superior cash-on-hand.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$6,968종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 82.5% implied probability to retain Texas's 12th Congressional District in the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+11) and incumbent Craig Goldman's commanding 2024 victory margin of 63.5%-36.5%. Goldman's unopposed win in the March 3 Republican primary underscores party unity and his incumbency advantage in a seat that supported Donald Trump by 24 points in 2024. Democrat Heli Rodriguez Prilliman secured her nomination with 59.8% in a low-turnout primary, but faces steep barriers amid universal Solid/Safe Republican ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. No major shifts have occurred since primaries, with Goldman holding superior cash-on-hand.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,968종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 82.5% implied probability to retain Texas's 12th Congressional District in the November 3, 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+11) and incumbent Craig Goldman's commanding 2024 victory margin of 63.5%-36.5%. Goldman's unopposed win in the March 3 Republican primary underscores party unity and his incumbency advantage in a seat that supported Donald Trump by 24 points in 2024. Democrat Heli Rodriguez Prilliman secured her nomination with 59.8% in a low-turnout primary, but faces steep barriers amid universal Solid/Safe Republican ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. No major shifts have occurred since primaries, with Goldman holding superior cash-on-hand.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문