The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the VA-04 House election market, driven by the district’s consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and a history of Democratic victories exceeding 67% in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Jennifer McClellan, first elected in a 2023 special election and re-elected comfortably in 2024, faces minimal opposition as the presumptive Democratic nominee ahead of the August 2026 primary and November general election. No viable Republican candidate has emerged, and independent filings remain marginal. This positioning aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset, candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in the Richmond and Southside Virginia areas could narrow margins, though structural factors limit realistic shifts before November 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$3,277 거래량
93%
Republican Party
$2,151 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the VA-04 House election market, driven by the district’s consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and a history of Democratic victories exceeding 67% in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Jennifer McClellan, first elected in a 2023 special election and re-elected comfortably in 2024, faces minimal opposition as the presumptive Democratic nominee ahead of the August 2026 primary and November general election. No viable Republican candidate has emerged, and independent filings remain marginal. This positioning aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset, candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in the Richmond and Southside Virginia areas could narrow margins, though structural factors limit realistic shifts before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$5,427종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the VA-04 House election market, driven by the district’s consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and a history of Democratic victories exceeding 67% in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Jennifer McClellan, first elected in a 2023 special election and re-elected comfortably in 2024, faces minimal opposition as the presumptive Democratic nominee ahead of the August 2026 primary and November general election. No viable Republican candidate has emerged, and independent filings remain marginal. This positioning aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset, candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in the Richmond and Southside Virginia areas could narrow margins, though structural factors limit realistic shifts before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$5,427종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the VA-04 House election market, driven by the district’s consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and a history of Democratic victories exceeding 67% in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Jennifer McClellan, first elected in a 2023 special election and re-elected comfortably in 2024, faces minimal opposition as the presumptive Democratic nominee ahead of the August 2026 primary and November general election. No viable Republican candidate has emerged, and independent filings remain marginal. This positioning aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset, candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in the Richmond and Southside Virginia areas could narrow margins, though structural factors limit realistic shifts before November 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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