Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on the U.S. unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for April 2026, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released May 8, which confirmed the rate unchanged from March's 4.3% amid 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 jobs. This stability aligns with recent low initial jobless claims and a cooling yet resilient labor market, bolstering the Federal Reserve's soft landing outlook as wage growth moderated to 0.2% monthly. While benchmark revisions occur annually in January without typically altering unemployment materially, any significant methodological adjustments or data errors could prompt a rare revisit, though historical precedents show minimal impact.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoApril Unemployment Rate
April Unemployment Rate
4.3% 100.0%
≤3.9% <1%
4.0% <1%
4.1% <1%
$90,149 Wol.
$90,149 Wol.
May 8, 2026
≤3.9%
No
4.0%
No
4.1%
No
4.2%
No
4.3%
Yes
4.4%
No
4.5%
No
4.6%
No
≥4.7%
No
4.3% 100.0%
≤3.9% <1%
4.0% <1%
4.1% <1%
$90,149 Wol.
$90,149 Wol.
May 8, 2026
≤3.9%
$6,316 Wol.
No
4.0%
$6,458 Wol.
No
4.1%
$9,130 Wol.
No
4.2%
$9,141 Wol.
No
4.3%
$14,410 Wol.
Yes
4.4%
$16,728 Wol.
No
4.5%
$8,164 Wol.
No
4.6%
$8,944 Wol.
No
≥4.7%
$10,859 Wol.
No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on the U.S. unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for April 2026, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released May 8, which confirmed the rate unchanged from March's 4.3% amid 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 jobs. This stability aligns with recent low initial jobless claims and a cooling yet resilient labor market, bolstering the Federal Reserve's soft landing outlook as wage growth moderated to 0.2% monthly. While benchmark revisions occur annually in January without typically altering unemployment materially, any significant methodological adjustments or data errors could prompt a rare revisit, though historical precedents show minimal impact.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$90,149Data zakończenia
May 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on the U.S. unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for April 2026, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released May 8, which confirmed the rate unchanged from March's 4.3% amid 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 jobs. This stability aligns with recent low initial jobless claims and a cooling yet resilient labor market, bolstering the Federal Reserve's soft landing outlook as wage growth moderated to 0.2% monthly. While benchmark revisions occur annually in January without typically altering unemployment materially, any significant methodological adjustments or data errors could prompt a rare revisit, though historical precedents show minimal impact.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$90,149Data zakończenia
May 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on the U.S. unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for April 2026, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released May 8, which confirmed the rate unchanged from March's 4.3% amid 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 jobs. This stability aligns with recent low initial jobless claims and a cooling yet resilient labor market, bolstering the Federal Reserve's soft landing outlook as wage growth moderated to 0.2% monthly. While benchmark revisions occur annually in January without typically altering unemployment materially, any significant methodological adjustments or data errors could prompt a rare revisit, though historical precedents show minimal impact.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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