Recent June 2026 core CPI MoM came in at 0.0%, softer than the 0.2% consensus and prior 0.2% print, contributing to the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around 0.1–0.3% for July. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a 0.21% increase, reflecting persistent shelter and services pressures alongside moderating goods prices. Traders weigh this against broader inflation stickiness near 2.6% YoY, resilient labor markets, and Federal Reserve communications signaling caution on policy easing. With outcomes closely matched, resolution hinges on housing components, energy pass-through, and any tariff-related effects in the upcoming mid-August release. Market-implied odds capture aggregated capital at risk rather than certainty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCore CPI MoM - July 2026
0.2% 35.4%
0.1% 29.3%
0.3% 24.8%
≤0.0% 8.8%
$66,620 Wol.
$66,620 Wol.
≤0.0%
9%
0.1%
29%
0.2%
35%
0.3%
25%
0.4%
1%
0.5%
1%
0.6%+
3%
0.2% 35.4%
0.1% 29.3%
0.3% 24.8%
≤0.0% 8.8%
$66,620 Wol.
$66,620 Wol.
≤0.0%
9%
0.1%
29%
0.2%
35%
0.3%
25%
0.4%
1%
0.5%
1%
0.6%+
3%
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 5, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 core CPI MoM came in at 0.0%, softer than the 0.2% consensus and prior 0.2% print, contributing to the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around 0.1–0.3% for July. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a 0.21% increase, reflecting persistent shelter and services pressures alongside moderating goods prices. Traders weigh this against broader inflation stickiness near 2.6% YoY, resilient labor markets, and Federal Reserve communications signaling caution on policy easing. With outcomes closely matched, resolution hinges on housing components, energy pass-through, and any tariff-related effects in the upcoming mid-August release. Market-implied odds capture aggregated capital at risk rather than certainty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano

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