Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven the ECB Governing Council to maintain its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through the April 2026 meeting while signaling a data-dependent path toward tighter policy. Officials have highlighted risks of second-round effects, with market-implied expectations now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year rather than further easing. Trader consensus on no rate cut in 2026 reflects these verified price pressures and explicit policy signals, though a durable decline in energy costs or materially softer core inflation readings could still shift the outlook before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB rate cut in 2026?
ECB rate cut in 2026?
$28,063 Wol.
$28,063 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,063 Wol.
$28,063 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven the ECB Governing Council to maintain its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through the April 2026 meeting while signaling a data-dependent path toward tighter policy. Officials have highlighted risks of second-round effects, with market-implied expectations now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year rather than further easing. Trader consensus on no rate cut in 2026 reflects these verified price pressures and explicit policy signals, though a durable decline in energy costs or materially softer core inflation readings could still shift the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,063Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven the ECB Governing Council to maintain its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through the April 2026 meeting while signaling a data-dependent path toward tighter policy. Officials have highlighted risks of second-round effects, with market-implied expectations now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year rather than further easing. Trader consensus on no rate cut in 2026 reflects these verified price pressures and explicit policy signals, though a durable decline in energy costs or materially softer core inflation readings could still shift the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$28,063Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven the ECB Governing Council to maintain its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through the April 2026 meeting while signaling a data-dependent path toward tighter policy. Officials have highlighted risks of second-round effects, with market-implied expectations now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year rather than further easing. Trader consensus on no rate cut in 2026 reflects these verified price pressures and explicit policy signals, though a durable decline in energy costs or materially softer core inflation readings could still shift the outlook before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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