Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven euro area inflation projections sharply higher to around 2.6% for 2026, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2% following the April 30 decision. Staff forecasts and market surveys now anticipate possible rate hikes later in the year rather than easing, with subdued growth of roughly 0.9% insufficient to outweigh price pressures from energy costs. Policymakers emphasize a data-dependent approach without pre-committing to any path, and professional forecasters have revised expectations upward for policy rates through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability against a rate cut occurring in 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB rate cut in 2026?
ECB rate cut in 2026?
$28,063 Wol.
$28,063 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,063 Wol.
$28,063 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven euro area inflation projections sharply higher to around 2.6% for 2026, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2% following the April 30 decision. Staff forecasts and market surveys now anticipate possible rate hikes later in the year rather than easing, with subdued growth of roughly 0.9% insufficient to outweigh price pressures from energy costs. Policymakers emphasize a data-dependent approach without pre-committing to any path, and professional forecasters have revised expectations upward for policy rates through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability against a rate cut occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,063Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven euro area inflation projections sharply higher to around 2.6% for 2026, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2% following the April 30 decision. Staff forecasts and market surveys now anticipate possible rate hikes later in the year rather than easing, with subdued growth of roughly 0.9% insufficient to outweigh price pressures from energy costs. Policymakers emphasize a data-dependent approach without pre-committing to any path, and professional forecasters have revised expectations upward for policy rates through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability against a rate cut occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$28,063Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven euro area inflation projections sharply higher to around 2.6% for 2026, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2% following the April 30 decision. Staff forecasts and market surveys now anticipate possible rate hikes later in the year rather than easing, with subdued growth of roughly 0.9% insufficient to outweigh price pressures from energy costs. Policymakers emphasize a data-dependent approach without pre-committing to any path, and professional forecasters have revised expectations upward for policy rates through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability against a rate cut occurring in 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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