Recent euro-area inflation acceleration, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy signals toward tightening after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of persistent core readings and second-round effects, prompting markets to fully price a June 25-basis-point hike and additional moves later in 2026. Trader consensus at 99.9% for at least one rate increase reflects this data-dependent stance and upward revisions to inflation projections. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sustained disinflation could still reduce the number or timing of hikes within the year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$165,537 Wol.
$165,537 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$165,537 Wol.
$165,537 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent euro-area inflation acceleration, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy signals toward tightening after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of persistent core readings and second-round effects, prompting markets to fully price a June 25-basis-point hike and additional moves later in 2026. Trader consensus at 99.9% for at least one rate increase reflects this data-dependent stance and upward revisions to inflation projections. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sustained disinflation could still reduce the number or timing of hikes within the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$165,537Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent euro-area inflation acceleration, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy signals toward tightening after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of persistent core readings and second-round effects, prompting markets to fully price a June 25-basis-point hike and additional moves later in 2026. Trader consensus at 99.9% for at least one rate increase reflects this data-dependent stance and upward revisions to inflation projections. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sustained disinflation could still reduce the number or timing of hikes within the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$165,537Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Recent euro-area inflation acceleration, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy signals toward tightening after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of persistent core readings and second-round effects, prompting markets to fully price a June 25-basis-point hike and additional moves later in 2026. Trader consensus at 99.9% for at least one rate increase reflects this data-dependent stance and upward revisions to inflation projections. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sustained disinflation could still reduce the number or timing of hikes within the year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania