Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 4, backed by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts showing a daily maximum of 25°C amid persistent overcast skies and patchy rain that limit solar heating. Observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—align with this, as midday peaks hovered around this mark with no signs of intensification. Cooler-than-average May conditions (historical highs near 29–30°C) stem from stable low-pressure patterns suppressing typical convective activity. A late-afternoon clearing could theoretically push temperatures higher, but diminishing daylight and cloud cover make this improbable, with final hourly data expected soon after sunset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 4?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 4?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$45,337 Wol.
$45,337 Wol.
May 4, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$45,337 Wol.
$45,337 Wol.
May 4, 2026
20°C or below
$3,118 Wol.
No
21°C
$4,239 Wol.
No
22°C
$3,477 Wol.
No
23°C
$4,780 Wol.
No
24°C
$3,624 Wol.
No
25°C
$5,241 Wol.
Yes
26°C
$5,873 Wol.
No
27°C
$4,594 Wol.
No
28°C
$4,680 Wol.
No
29°C
$3,560 Wol.
No
30°C or higher
$2,152 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 4, backed by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts showing a daily maximum of 25°C amid persistent overcast skies and patchy rain that limit solar heating. Observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—align with this, as midday peaks hovered around this mark with no signs of intensification. Cooler-than-average May conditions (historical highs near 29–30°C) stem from stable low-pressure patterns suppressing typical convective activity. A late-afternoon clearing could theoretically push temperatures higher, but diminishing daylight and cloud cover make this improbable, with final hourly data expected soon after sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$45,337Data zakończenia
May 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 4, backed by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts showing a daily maximum of 25°C amid persistent overcast skies and patchy rain that limit solar heating. Observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—align with this, as midday peaks hovered around this mark with no signs of intensification. Cooler-than-average May conditions (historical highs near 29–30°C) stem from stable low-pressure patterns suppressing typical convective activity. A late-afternoon clearing could theoretically push temperatures higher, but diminishing daylight and cloud cover make this improbable, with final hourly data expected soon after sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$45,337Data zakończenia
May 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 4, backed by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts showing a daily maximum of 25°C amid persistent overcast skies and patchy rain that limit solar heating. Observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—align with this, as midday peaks hovered around this mark with no signs of intensification. Cooler-than-average May conditions (historical highs near 29–30°C) stem from stable low-pressure patterns suppressing typical convective activity. A late-afternoon clearing could theoretically push temperatures higher, but diminishing daylight and cloud cover make this improbable, with final hourly data expected soon after sunset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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