The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Houston projects a high temperature of 84-87°F inland on May 5, fueled by south winds of 5-15 mph ushering warm, moist Gulf air amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated shower chances. Recent model ensembles, including high-resolution runs updated within the last 24 hours, show consensus peaks near 86°F during afternoon hours, far exceeding the 78°F market threshold and aligning with early May climatological norms averaging 85°F. This drives the 100% trader-implied probability for 78°F or higher, backed by morning observations already in the mid-70s°F. Only an unforeseen surge in thunderstorm coverage or wind shift could suppress highs below 78°F, though current outlooks deem this unlikely; track NOAA hourly data and 2 p.m. CDT updates for confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Houston on May 5?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 5?
78°F or higher 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$62,116 Wol.
$62,116 Wol.
May 5, 2026
59°F or below
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78°F or higher
Yes
78°F or higher 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$62,116 Wol.
$62,116 Wol.
May 5, 2026
59°F or below
$552 Wol.
No
60-61°F
$916 Wol.
No
62-63°F
$678 Wol.
No
64-65°F
$3,054 Wol.
No
66-67°F
$4,517 Wol.
No
68-69°F
$3,250 Wol.
No
70-71°F
$4,381 Wol.
No
72-73°F
$4,069 Wol.
No
74-75°F
$5,221 Wol.
No
76-77°F
$15,707 Wol.
No
78°F or higher
$19,773 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Houston projects a high temperature of 84-87°F inland on May 5, fueled by south winds of 5-15 mph ushering warm, moist Gulf air amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated shower chances. Recent model ensembles, including high-resolution runs updated within the last 24 hours, show consensus peaks near 86°F during afternoon hours, far exceeding the 78°F market threshold and aligning with early May climatological norms averaging 85°F. This drives the 100% trader-implied probability for 78°F or higher, backed by morning observations already in the mid-70s°F. Only an unforeseen surge in thunderstorm coverage or wind shift could suppress highs below 78°F, though current outlooks deem this unlikely; track NOAA hourly data and 2 p.m. CDT updates for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$62,116Data zakończenia
May 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Houston projects a high temperature of 84-87°F inland on May 5, fueled by south winds of 5-15 mph ushering warm, moist Gulf air amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated shower chances. Recent model ensembles, including high-resolution runs updated within the last 24 hours, show consensus peaks near 86°F during afternoon hours, far exceeding the 78°F market threshold and aligning with early May climatological norms averaging 85°F. This drives the 100% trader-implied probability for 78°F or higher, backed by morning observations already in the mid-70s°F. Only an unforeseen surge in thunderstorm coverage or wind shift could suppress highs below 78°F, though current outlooks deem this unlikely; track NOAA hourly data and 2 p.m. CDT updates for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$62,116Data zakończenia
May 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Houston projects a high temperature of 84-87°F inland on May 5, fueled by south winds of 5-15 mph ushering warm, moist Gulf air amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated shower chances. Recent model ensembles, including high-resolution runs updated within the last 24 hours, show consensus peaks near 86°F during afternoon hours, far exceeding the 78°F market threshold and aligning with early May climatological norms averaging 85°F. This drives the 100% trader-implied probability for 78°F or higher, backed by morning observations already in the mid-70s°F. Only an unforeseen surge in thunderstorm coverage or wind shift could suppress highs below 78°F, though current outlooks deem this unlikely; track NOAA hourly data and 2 p.m. CDT updates for confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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