Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like ECMWF and AEMET show ensemble spreads centered on 37–38°C maximum temperatures for Madrid on August 1, consistent with the near-even market-implied odds for those outcomes. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation across the Iberian Plateau, while light northeasterly flow limits advective cooling. Late-July observations at Retiro station (32–37°C) provide a warm baseline, but small differences in boundary-layer mixing, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1–2°C. With resolution two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates and AEMET guidance, which continue to bracket the most likely values near 37–38°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 1?
38°C 43%
37°C 40%
39°C 19%
36°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 1, 2026
34°C or below
1%
35°C
1%
36°C
3%
37°C
40%
38°C
43%
39°C
19%
40°C
1%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 43%
37°C 40%
39°C 19%
36°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 1, 2026
34°C or below
$89 Wol.
1%
35°C
$81 Wol.
1%
36°C
$0 Wol.
3%
37°C
$88 Wol.
40%
38°C
$107 Wol.
43%
39°C
$129 Wol.
19%
40°C
$32 Wol.
1%
41°C
$27 Wol.
1%
42°C
$65 Wol.
<1%
43°C
$31 Wol.
1%
44°C or higher
$55 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like ECMWF and AEMET show ensemble spreads centered on 37–38°C maximum temperatures for Madrid on August 1, consistent with the near-even market-implied odds for those outcomes. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation across the Iberian Plateau, while light northeasterly flow limits advective cooling. Late-July observations at Retiro station (32–37°C) provide a warm baseline, but small differences in boundary-layer mixing, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1–2°C. With resolution two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates and AEMET guidance, which continue to bracket the most likely values near 37–38°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$704Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like ECMWF and AEMET show ensemble spreads centered on 37–38°C maximum temperatures for Madrid on August 1, consistent with the near-even market-implied odds for those outcomes. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation across the Iberian Plateau, while light northeasterly flow limits advective cooling. Late-July observations at Retiro station (32–37°C) provide a warm baseline, but small differences in boundary-layer mixing, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1–2°C. With resolution two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates and AEMET guidance, which continue to bracket the most likely values near 37–38°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$704Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like ECMWF and AEMET show ensemble spreads centered on 37–38°C maximum temperatures for Madrid on August 1, consistent with the near-even market-implied odds for those outcomes. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation across the Iberian Plateau, while light northeasterly flow limits advective cooling. Late-July observations at Retiro station (32–37°C) provide a warm baseline, but small differences in boundary-layer mixing, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1–2°C. With resolution two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates and AEMET guidance, which continue to bracket the most likely values near 37–38°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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