Persistent high-pressure patterns and a broad European heat dome are sustaining the current heatwave across Spain, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble models indicating Madrid maximum temperatures of 38–39 °C on 12 August under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow. Hot air advection from North Africa, combined with strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate, supports these values, while limited cloud cover from the partial solar eclipse timing minimizes any cooling effect. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 38–39 °C as the most probable outcomes given historical August extremes and the absence of significant frontal passages.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
39°C 59%
38°C 39%
40°C 4%
41°C 2%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
39%
39°C
59%
40°C
4%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 59%
38°C 39%
40°C 4%
41°C 2%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
$177 Wol.
<1%
34°C
$177 Wol.
<1%
35°C
$145 Wol.
<1%
36°C
$181 Wol.
2%
37°C
$222 Wol.
2%
38°C
$431 Wol.
39%
39°C
$437 Wol.
59%
40°C
$237 Wol.
4%
41°C
$156 Wol.
2%
42°C
$157 Wol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$177 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure patterns and a broad European heat dome are sustaining the current heatwave across Spain, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble models indicating Madrid maximum temperatures of 38–39 °C on 12 August under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow. Hot air advection from North Africa, combined with strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate, supports these values, while limited cloud cover from the partial solar eclipse timing minimizes any cooling effect. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 38–39 °C as the most probable outcomes given historical August extremes and the absence of significant frontal passages.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,499Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure patterns and a broad European heat dome are sustaining the current heatwave across Spain, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble models indicating Madrid maximum temperatures of 38–39 °C on 12 August under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow. Hot air advection from North Africa, combined with strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate, supports these values, while limited cloud cover from the partial solar eclipse timing minimizes any cooling effect. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 38–39 °C as the most probable outcomes given historical August extremes and the absence of significant frontal passages.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,499Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high-pressure patterns and a broad European heat dome are sustaining the current heatwave across Spain, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble models indicating Madrid maximum temperatures of 38–39 °C on 12 August under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow. Hot air advection from North Africa, combined with strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate, supports these values, while limited cloud cover from the partial solar eclipse timing minimizes any cooling effect. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 38–39 °C as the most probable outcomes given historical August extremes and the absence of significant frontal passages.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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