Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum temperature near 22–24°C on August 12 amid cloudy skies and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 23°C and 24°C, reflecting model consensus on modest daytime highs near 29–31°C and the typical August baseline minimum of 23.7°C. Subtle differences in precipitation timing and cloud cover thickness across ensemble runs create the narrow spread between outcomes, with any clearer overnight window potentially favoring the lower end and sustained humidity the higher. Updated JMA guidance and regional model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
23°C 37%
24°C 35%
22°C 18%
21°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
5%
21°C
9%
22°C
18%
23°C
34%
24°C
35%
25°C
6%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 37%
24°C 35%
22°C 18%
21°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
$34 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$28 Wol.
1%
20°C
$6 Wol.
5%
21°C
$0 Wol.
9%
22°C
$26 Wol.
18%
23°C
$5 Wol.
34%
24°C
$92 Wol.
35%
25°C
$1 Wol.
6%
26°C
$23 Wol.
4%
27°C
$34 Wol.
1%
28°C or higher
$34 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum temperature near 22–24°C on August 12 amid cloudy skies and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 23°C and 24°C, reflecting model consensus on modest daytime highs near 29–31°C and the typical August baseline minimum of 23.7°C. Subtle differences in precipitation timing and cloud cover thickness across ensemble runs create the narrow spread between outcomes, with any clearer overnight window potentially favoring the lower end and sustained humidity the higher. Updated JMA guidance and regional model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$283Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum temperature near 22–24°C on August 12 amid cloudy skies and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 23°C and 24°C, reflecting model consensus on modest daytime highs near 29–31°C and the typical August baseline minimum of 23.7°C. Subtle differences in precipitation timing and cloud cover thickness across ensemble runs create the narrow spread between outcomes, with any clearer overnight window potentially favoring the lower end and sustained humidity the higher. Updated JMA guidance and regional model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$283Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum temperature near 22–24°C on August 12 amid cloudy skies and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 23°C and 24°C, reflecting model consensus on modest daytime highs near 29–31°C and the typical August baseline minimum of 23.7°C. Subtle differences in precipitation timing and cloud cover thickness across ensemble runs create the narrow spread between outcomes, with any clearer overnight window potentially favoring the lower end and sustained humidity the higher. Updated JMA guidance and regional model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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