Current forecast models from Météo-France and ensembles indicate Paris minimum temperatures on August 12 clustering around 17–19°C, reflecting typical mid-August radiative cooling under variable high pressure with limited cloud cover overnight. Trader consensus on these closely matched outcomes stems from small differences in projected wind speeds, boundary-layer humidity, and urban heat island effects that moderate overnight lows, alongside ensemble spread in steering patterns that could allow slightly warmer advection. Recent model runs show stable conditions without major fronts, though minor shifts in dew point or insolation from the prior day could tip the exact minimum between these thresholds. Historical August baselines near 15°C provide context, but current guidance favors the 17–18°C range absent unexpected clear-sky intensification of cooling.