Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate cloudy conditions with frequent scattered showers and an 80% precipitation probability for Tokyo on August 12, which are expected to limit daytime solar heating and cap maximum temperatures below the seasonal normal of 31.6°C. This short-term pattern contrasts with the agency's broader summer 2026 outlook for above-average warmth driven by a strengthened Pacific High, yet the immediate synoptic setup favors moderation through increased cloud cover and moisture. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 27–29°C as traders weigh model consensus on these factors against typical August climatology of 30–33°C highs, with updates from the next JMA briefing and refined numerical guidance likely to refine the range ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
28°C 37%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
26°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
13%
27°C
27%
28°C
37%
29°C
19%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 37%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
26°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$79 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$14 Wol.
1%
25°C
$364 Wol.
4%
26°C
$429 Wol.
13%
27°C
$290 Wol.
27%
28°C
$149 Wol.
37%
29°C
$924 Wol.
19%
30°C
$560 Wol.
3%
31°C
$152 Wol.
1%
32°C
$288 Wol.
1%
33°C or higher
$611 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate cloudy conditions with frequent scattered showers and an 80% precipitation probability for Tokyo on August 12, which are expected to limit daytime solar heating and cap maximum temperatures below the seasonal normal of 31.6°C. This short-term pattern contrasts with the agency's broader summer 2026 outlook for above-average warmth driven by a strengthened Pacific High, yet the immediate synoptic setup favors moderation through increased cloud cover and moisture. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 27–29°C as traders weigh model consensus on these factors against typical August climatology of 30–33°C highs, with updates from the next JMA briefing and refined numerical guidance likely to refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,858Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate cloudy conditions with frequent scattered showers and an 80% precipitation probability for Tokyo on August 12, which are expected to limit daytime solar heating and cap maximum temperatures below the seasonal normal of 31.6°C. This short-term pattern contrasts with the agency's broader summer 2026 outlook for above-average warmth driven by a strengthened Pacific High, yet the immediate synoptic setup favors moderation through increased cloud cover and moisture. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 27–29°C as traders weigh model consensus on these factors against typical August climatology of 30–33°C highs, with updates from the next JMA briefing and refined numerical guidance likely to refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,858Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate cloudy conditions with frequent scattered showers and an 80% precipitation probability for Tokyo on August 12, which are expected to limit daytime solar heating and cap maximum temperatures below the seasonal normal of 31.6°C. This short-term pattern contrasts with the agency's broader summer 2026 outlook for above-average warmth driven by a strengthened Pacific High, yet the immediate synoptic setup favors moderation through increased cloud cover and moisture. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 27–29°C as traders weigh model consensus on these factors against typical August climatology of 30–33°C highs, with updates from the next JMA briefing and refined numerical guidance likely to refine the range ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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