Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
20°C 44%
19°C 24%
21°C 24%
18°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
4%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C
11%
19°C
24%
20°C
44%
21°C
24%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 44%
19°C 24%
21°C 24%
18°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
$31 Wol.
4%
16°C
$19 Wol.
5%
17°C
$402 Wol.
2%
18°C
$196 Wol.
11%
19°C
$320 Wol.
24%
20°C
$269 Wol.
44%
21°C
$237 Wol.
24%
22°C
$235 Wol.
9%
23°C
$5 Wol.
5%
24°C
$12 Wol.
5%
25°C or higher
$12 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,738Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,738Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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