Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 13 indicate scattered showers and daytime highs near 28–30°C under typical mid-August humidity levels exceeding 70–80%, aligning with trader consensus around the closely matched 28°C and 29°C implied probabilities. Subtle differences between these outcomes hinge on model variations in cloud cover timing, precipitation intensity, and the strength of the Pacific High, which can suppress or enhance peak solar heating by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 31–32°C provide context, though above-normal summer 2026 temperatures and urban heat effects support elevated baselines. Updated JMA model runs and observational data in the next 48 hours represent key catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
29°C 29%
28°C 29%
27°C 19%
30°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
19%
28°C
29%
29°C
29%
30°C
14%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 29%
28°C 29%
27°C 19%
30°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$472 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$92 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$55 Wol.
1%
26°C
$25 Wol.
5%
27°C
$314 Wol.
19%
28°C
$49 Wol.
29%
29°C
$151 Wol.
29%
30°C
$45 Wol.
14%
31°C
$183 Wol.
6%
32°C
$227 Wol.
3%
33°C or higher
$1,165 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 13 indicate scattered showers and daytime highs near 28–30°C under typical mid-August humidity levels exceeding 70–80%, aligning with trader consensus around the closely matched 28°C and 29°C implied probabilities. Subtle differences between these outcomes hinge on model variations in cloud cover timing, precipitation intensity, and the strength of the Pacific High, which can suppress or enhance peak solar heating by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 31–32°C provide context, though above-normal summer 2026 temperatures and urban heat effects support elevated baselines. Updated JMA model runs and observational data in the next 48 hours represent key catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,778Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 13 indicate scattered showers and daytime highs near 28–30°C under typical mid-August humidity levels exceeding 70–80%, aligning with trader consensus around the closely matched 28°C and 29°C implied probabilities. Subtle differences between these outcomes hinge on model variations in cloud cover timing, precipitation intensity, and the strength of the Pacific High, which can suppress or enhance peak solar heating by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 31–32°C provide context, though above-normal summer 2026 temperatures and urban heat effects support elevated baselines. Updated JMA model runs and observational data in the next 48 hours represent key catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,778Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 13 indicate scattered showers and daytime highs near 28–30°C under typical mid-August humidity levels exceeding 70–80%, aligning with trader consensus around the closely matched 28°C and 29°C implied probabilities. Subtle differences between these outcomes hinge on model variations in cloud cover timing, precipitation intensity, and the strength of the Pacific High, which can suppress or enhance peak solar heating by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 31–32°C provide context, though above-normal summer 2026 temperatures and urban heat effects support elevated baselines. Updated JMA model runs and observational data in the next 48 hours represent key catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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