Escalating Middle East tensions and surging oil prices near $95 per barrel have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs of 4.82% on September 2, its highest level since November 2023, before settling near 4.78-4.79%. Persistent inflation concerns, with core PCE above 3% and fiscal deficit worries, have lifted term premiums and shifted market-implied rate paths higher, with traders pricing in a potential September FOMC hike at the federal funds target of 3.50-3.75%. Weak August ADP private payrolls of 38,000 underscore labor market softening, yet New York Fed President Williams noted the economy's strength while awaiting further data. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls, September 11 CPI, and the September 16 FOMC decision, which could clarify whether yields sustain above recent levels or moderate on cooler inflation prints.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
5.10%
50%
5.05%
50%
5.00%
50%
4.97%
50%
4.94%
50%
4.91%
50%
4.88%
50%
4.85%
50%
4.82%
50%
$0.00 Wol.
5.10%
$0 Wol.
50%
5.05%
$0 Wol.
50%
5.00%
$0 Wol.
50%
4.97%
$0 Wol.
50%
4.94%
$0 Wol.
50%
4.91%
$0 Wol.
50%
4.88%
$0 Wol.
50%
4.85%
$0 Wol.
50%
4.82%
$0 Wol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Escalating Middle East tensions and surging oil prices near $95 per barrel have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs of 4.82% on September 2, its highest level since November 2023, before settling near 4.78-4.79%. Persistent inflation concerns, with core PCE above 3% and fiscal deficit worries, have lifted term premiums and shifted market-implied rate paths higher, with traders pricing in a potential September FOMC hike at the federal funds target of 3.50-3.75%. Weak August ADP private payrolls of 38,000 underscore labor market softening, yet New York Fed President Williams noted the economy's strength while awaiting further data. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls, September 11 CPI, and the September 16 FOMC decision, which could clarify whether yields sustain above recent levels or moderate on cooler inflation prints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Escalating Middle East tensions and surging oil prices near $95 per barrel have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs of 4.82% on September 2, its highest level since November 2023, before settling near 4.78-4.79%. Persistent inflation concerns, with core PCE above 3% and fiscal deficit worries, have lifted term premiums and shifted market-implied rate paths higher, with traders pricing in a potential September FOMC hike at the federal funds target of 3.50-3.75%. Weak August ADP private payrolls of 38,000 underscore labor market softening, yet New York Fed President Williams noted the economy's strength while awaiting further data. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls, September 11 CPI, and the September 16 FOMC decision, which could clarify whether yields sustain above recent levels or moderate on cooler inflation prints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Escalating Middle East tensions and surging oil prices near $95 per barrel have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs of 4.82% on September 2, its highest level since November 2023, before settling near 4.78-4.79%. Persistent inflation concerns, with core PCE above 3% and fiscal deficit worries, have lifted term premiums and shifted market-implied rate paths higher, with traders pricing in a potential September FOMC hike at the federal funds target of 3.50-3.75%. Weak August ADP private payrolls of 38,000 underscore labor market softening, yet New York Fed President Williams noted the economy's strength while awaiting further data. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls, September 11 CPI, and the September 16 FOMC decision, which could clarify whether yields sustain above recent levels or moderate on cooler inflation prints.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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