Trump’s approval rating has hovered in the low-to-mid 30s through summer 2026, weighed down by the unresolved conflict with Iran that began in February and persistent voter dissatisfaction with prices and the cost of living. Escalating energy costs tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with tariff policies and slower progress on inflation, have produced net approval readings near -20 to -30 in recent national surveys. The November 2026 midterm elections now serve as the primary near-term test, with outcomes likely to reflect or amplify shifts in public sentiment on these issues. Any de-escalation in the Iran conflict, favorable economic data releases, or visible policy adjustments could alter the trajectory before year-end, while continued stalemate or further price pressures would sustain downward pressure on the president’s standing.