Latest ensemble forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF point to a minimum temperature of 13–16°C for Istanbul on September 24, driven by clearing skies and light winds after heavy rain on the 23rd that suppressed daytime highs near 17–18°C. This transitional pattern, with northerly flow moderating marine influence, supports trader focus on the mid-teens range even as 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes each imply 48% probability. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact clearing timing creates the observed uncertainty around specific thresholds like 11–13°C, with resolution hinging on official observations from Turkish meteorological stations. Updated runs overnight will refine the final distribution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 24?
7°C or below 96%
17°C or higher 96%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 24, 2026
7°C or below
96%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
21%
11°C
22%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
19%
15°C
19%
16°C
18%
17°C or higher
96%
7°C or below 96%
17°C or higher 96%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 24, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Wol.
96%
8°C
$0 Wol.
40%
9°C
$0 Wol.
40%
10°C
$6 Wol.
21%
11°C
$0 Wol.
22%
12°C
$0 Wol.
40%
13°C
$0 Wol.
40%
14°C
$0 Wol.
19%
15°C
$0 Wol.
19%
16°C
$0 Wol.
18%
17°C or higher
$0 Wol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF point to a minimum temperature of 13–16°C for Istanbul on September 24, driven by clearing skies and light winds after heavy rain on the 23rd that suppressed daytime highs near 17–18°C. This transitional pattern, with northerly flow moderating marine influence, supports trader focus on the mid-teens range even as 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes each imply 48% probability. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact clearing timing creates the observed uncertainty around specific thresholds like 11–13°C, with resolution hinging on official observations from Turkish meteorological stations. Updated runs overnight will refine the final distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Wolumen
$6Data zakończenia
Sep 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF point to a minimum temperature of 13–16°C for Istanbul on September 24, driven by clearing skies and light winds after heavy rain on the 23rd that suppressed daytime highs near 17–18°C. This transitional pattern, with northerly flow moderating marine influence, supports trader focus on the mid-teens range even as 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes each imply 48% probability. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact clearing timing creates the observed uncertainty around specific thresholds like 11–13°C, with resolution hinging on official observations from Turkish meteorological stations. Updated runs overnight will refine the final distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$6Data zakończenia
Sep 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF point to a minimum temperature of 13–16°C for Istanbul on September 24, driven by clearing skies and light winds after heavy rain on the 23rd that suppressed daytime highs near 17–18°C. This transitional pattern, with northerly flow moderating marine influence, supports trader focus on the mid-teens range even as 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes each imply 48% probability. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact clearing timing creates the observed uncertainty around specific thresholds like 11–13°C, with resolution hinging on official observations from Turkish meteorological stations. Updated runs overnight will refine the final distribution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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