Recent model guidance points to a transition toward cooler northerly airflow over southern England by July 18, following an extended period of above-average warmth and multiple heatwaves across the UK this summer. This shift, driven by changing pressure patterns, supports minimum temperatures clustering around 13–16°C in London, consistent with climatological July overnight lows near 13°C yet tempered by the preceding warmth. Trader positioning reflects this uncertainty, with elevated implied probability on the 11°C-or-below outcome alongside mid-teens bins, as ensemble forecasts show modest spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover. The Met Office and ECMWF will issue updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours that could further refine these ranges ahead of the overnight period.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in London on July 18?
Lowest temperature in London on July 18?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$24,171 Wol.
$24,171 Wol.
Jul 18, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$24,171 Wol.
$24,171 Wol.
Jul 18, 2026
11°C or below
$986 Wol.
No
12°C
$1,372 Wol.
No
13°C
$2,103 Wol.
No
14°C
$1,719 Wol.
No
15°C
$2,918 Wol.
No
16°C
$7,467 Wol.
Yes
17°C
$5,588 Wol.
No
18°C
$843 Wol.
No
19°C
$443 Wol.
No
20°C
$517 Wol.
No
21°C or higher
$217 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance points to a transition toward cooler northerly airflow over southern England by July 18, following an extended period of above-average warmth and multiple heatwaves across the UK this summer. This shift, driven by changing pressure patterns, supports minimum temperatures clustering around 13–16°C in London, consistent with climatological July overnight lows near 13°C yet tempered by the preceding warmth. Trader positioning reflects this uncertainty, with elevated implied probability on the 11°C-or-below outcome alongside mid-teens bins, as ensemble forecasts show modest spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover. The Met Office and ECMWF will issue updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours that could further refine these ranges ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$24,171Data zakończenia
Jul 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance points to a transition toward cooler northerly airflow over southern England by July 18, following an extended period of above-average warmth and multiple heatwaves across the UK this summer. This shift, driven by changing pressure patterns, supports minimum temperatures clustering around 13–16°C in London, consistent with climatological July overnight lows near 13°C yet tempered by the preceding warmth. Trader positioning reflects this uncertainty, with elevated implied probability on the 11°C-or-below outcome alongside mid-teens bins, as ensemble forecasts show modest spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover. The Met Office and ECMWF will issue updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours that could further refine these ranges ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$24,171Data zakończenia
Jul 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent model guidance points to a transition toward cooler northerly airflow over southern England by July 18, following an extended period of above-average warmth and multiple heatwaves across the UK this summer. This shift, driven by changing pressure patterns, supports minimum temperatures clustering around 13–16°C in London, consistent with climatological July overnight lows near 13°C yet tempered by the preceding warmth. Trader positioning reflects this uncertainty, with elevated implied probability on the 11°C-or-below outcome alongside mid-teens bins, as ensemble forecasts show modest spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover. The Met Office and ECMWF will issue updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours that could further refine these ranges ahead of the overnight period.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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